First League · Regular Season - 14
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia host Botev Plovdiv on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lokomotiv Sofia 29%, draw 28%, Botev Plovdiv 43%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lokomotiv Sofia €251K, Botev Plovdiv €404K.
- Style contrast in possession (First League): Lokomotiv Sofia rank #13 of 16, Botev Plovdiv #4.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lokomotiv Sofia goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Lokomotiv Sofia 1388 · Botev Plovdiv 1556
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Botev Plovdiv · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1721
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lokomotiv Sofia
12th in First League · 8 pts from 11
- 10 OctDLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1385
- 20 SepWSpartak Varna Bulgarian First League1379
- 16 SepLCSKA Sofia Bulgarian First League1371
- 11 SepDCherno More Varna Bulgarian First League1430
- 6 SepLLudogorets Bulgarian First League1382
Botev Plovdiv
5th in First League · 19 pts from 11
- 10 OctWSlavia Sofia Bulgarian First League1550
- 19 SepWSeptemvri Sofia Bulgarian First League1520
- 13 SepWLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1526
- 4 SepWArda Kardzhali Bulgarian First League1507
- 30 AugLLevski Sofia Bulgarian First League1488
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 8 /11 | 25.5 | 0% | 0% | 34% | 11th |
| Botev Plovdiv | 19 /11 | 41.5 | 0% | 22% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lokomotiv Sofia: direct (how L. Penev plays) · Botev Plovdiv: balanced profile (how S. Genchev plays)