First League · Regular Season - 12
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv host Slavia Sofia on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 38%, draw 29%, Slavia Sofia 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lokomotiv Plovdiv €273K, Slavia Sofia €266K.
- Home advantage makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1374 · Slavia Sofia 1416
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Slavia Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1486
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
11th in First League · 8 pts from 11
- 10 OctDLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1410
- 20 SepDCSKA Sofia Bulgarian First League1412
- 13 SepLBotev Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1402
- 6 SepWCherno More Varna Bulgarian First League1404
- 28 AugLCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1437
Slavia Sofia
8th in First League · 11 pts from 11
- 10 OctLBotev Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1401
- 18 SepLCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1437
- 13 SepDSpartak Varna Bulgarian First League1478
- 7 SepWDunav Ruse Bulgarian First League1452
- 2 SepLLevski Sofia Bulgarian First League1444
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 8 /11 | 24.6 | 0% | 0% | 42% | 12th |
| Slavia Sofia | 11 /11 | 28.6 | 0% | <1% | 13% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: balanced profile (how Dušan Kosič plays) · Slavia Sofia: balanced profile (how Ratko Dostanić plays)