First League · Regular Season - 14
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv host Ludogorets on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 15%, draw 22%, Ludogorets 63%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lokomotiv Plovdiv €296K, Ludogorets €1.0M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of First League matchday 14: 412 points.
- Style contrast in discipline (First League): Lokomotiv Plovdiv rank #16 of 16, Ludogorets #1.
- Ludogorets are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
- 0–37%
- 1–37%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1372 · Ludogorets 1784
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ludogorets · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Elite) · Elo 1876
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
11th in First League · 8 pts from 11
- 10 OctDLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1410
- 20 SepDCSKA Sofia Bulgarian First League1412
- 13 SepLBotev Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1402
- 6 SepWCherno More Varna Bulgarian First League1404
- 28 AugLCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1437
Ludogorets
3rd in First League · 26 pts from 10
- 12 OctWArda Kardzhali Bulgarian First League1801
- 14 SepWSeptemvri Sofia Bulgarian First League1783
- 6 SepWLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1756
- 30 AugDSpartak Varna Bulgarian First League1760
- 22 AugDSlavia Sofia Bulgarian First League1763
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 8 /11 | 24.5 | 0% | 0% | 43% | 12th |
| Ludogorets | 26 /10 | 55.0 | 23% | 99% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: balanced profile (how Dušan Kosič plays) · Ludogorets: possession-based · creative (how Igor Jovičević plays)