Premier League · Regular Season - 6
Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Anfield, Liverpool
LiverpoolTeam 2331Manchester CityTeam 2666Match story
Liverpool · draw · Manchester CityBefore kick-off: 19% · 24% · 57%
Last reading, 90+3': 0% · 0% · 100%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Erling Haaland 65'
- Jeremy Doku 68'
- Rayan Cherki 78'
We gave Manchester City 57% to win: they did.
- Ronald Araujo 2578 −21*8'Liverpool:Ronald Araujo 2578 −21*
- Ryan Gravenberch 2451 −447'Liverpool:Ryan Gravenberch 2451 −4
- 56'Jeremy Doku 2625 +3* for Iliman Ndiaye 2425 +2*Manchester City:Jeremy Doku 2625 +3* for Iliman Ndiaye 2425 +2*
- 58'Nico O'Reilly 2631 0*Manchester City:Nico O'Reilly 2631 0*
- Ryan Gravenberch 2451 −462'Liverpool:Ryan Gravenberch 2451 −4
- 65'Erling Haaland 2785 +15Manchester City:Erling Haaland 2785 +15
- Treymaurice Nyoni 1297 −8* for Florian Wirtz 2477 −666'Liverpool:Treymaurice Nyoni 1297 −8* for Florian Wirtz 2477 −6
- 66'Josko Gvardiol 2683 +6 for Nico O'Reilly 2631 0*Manchester City:Josko Gvardiol 2683 +6 for Nico O'Reilly 2631 0*
- 68'Jeremy Doku 2625 +3* assist Elliot Anderson 2573 +32Manchester City:Jeremy Doku 2625 +3* assist Elliot Anderson 2573 +32
- Jeremie Frimpong 2368 −8* for Ronald Araujo 2578 −21*75'Liverpool:Jeremie Frimpong 2368 −8* for Ronald Araujo 2578 −21*
- Rio Ngumoha 2047 0 for Lewis Koumas 1938 075'Liverpool:Rio Ngumoha 2047 0 for Lewis Koumas 1938 0
- 78'Rayan Cherki 2677 +25 assist Josko Gvardiol 2683 +6Manchester City:Rayan Cherki 2677 +25 assist Josko Gvardiol 2683 +6
- 80'Allan Andrade Elias 2193 −5* for Erling Haaland 2785 +15Manchester City:Allan Andrade Elias 2193 −5* for Erling Haaland 2785 +15
- 80'Ayyoub Bouaddi 2271 −2* for Enzo Fernández 2565 +21*Manchester City:Ayyoub Bouaddi 2271 −2* for Enzo Fernández 2565 +21*
- 86'Ayyoub Bouaddi 2271 −2*Manchester City:Ayyoub Bouaddi 2271 −2*
- Joe Gomez 2424 −9* for Jérémy Jacquet 2314 088'Liverpool:Joe Gomez 2424 −9* for Jérémy Jacquet 2314 0
- Federico Chiesa 2115 −9* for Bradley Barcola 2493 −988'Liverpool:Federico Chiesa 2115 −9* for Bradley Barcola 2493 −9
- Virgil van Dijk 2405 −1090+1'Liverpool:Virgil van Dijk 2405 −10
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 19% · 24% · 57%(Liverpool · draw · Manchester City)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 0–3 had 6%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Liverpool €36.7M, Manchester City €63.7M.
- Liverpool were without 2 expected starters: C. Gakpo (2530) and A. Isak (2474).
- Manchester City were without 1 expected starter: P. Foden (2643).
- Premier League: Rúben Dias was the highest-rated defender (2685).
- Manchester City's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Liverpool
7th in Premier League · 9 pts from 5
- 20 SepWBournemouth Premier League2463
- 15 SepWTottenham England League Cup2133
- 12 SepDFulham Premier League2388
- 9 SepWAtletico Madrid UEFA Champions League2377
- 4 SepWIpswich Premier League2373
Manchester City
1st in Premier League · 15 pts from 5
- 20 SepWSunderland Premier League2621
- 17 SepWNorwich England League Cup2296
- 13 SepWManchester United Premier League2628
- 8 SepWFC Porto UEFA Champions League2585
- 5 SepWCoventry Premier League2574
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 9 /5 | 59.2 | <1% | 35% | <1% | 3rd |
| Manchester City | 15 /5 | 81.5 | 49% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Liverpool · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2415
Manchester City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.5 (Elite) · Elo 2541
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Liverpool: creative · possession-based (how Andoni Iraola plays) · Manchester City: possession-based · creative (how Enzo Maresca plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.