EFL Cup · Round of 16
Liverpool vs Chelsea
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Anfield, Liverpool
Liverpool host Chelsea on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (EFL Cup); on the confirmed line-ups our model gives Liverpool 43%, draw 27%, Chelsea 31%.
Prediction — confirmed line-ups
Provisional, from both squads' Elo: 49% · 27% · 24%
Most likely scores
On the confirmed line-ups. Liverpool goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–19%
- 1–28%
- 1–07%
- 2–07%
- 0–06%
- Other scores51%
Team Elo: Liverpool 2434 · Chelsea 2378
Confirmed line-ups
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Liverpool · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2481
Chelsea · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2435
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Liverpool
4th in Premier League · 15 pts from 8
- 25 OctWBrighton Premier League2510
- 20 OctWVillarreal UEFA Champions League2301
- 17 OctWBrentford Premier League2454
- 14 OctWLask Linz UEFA Champions League2239
- 11 OctLManchester City Premier League2397
Chelsea
5th in Premier League · 13 pts from 8
- 24 OctLTottenham Premier League2383
- 17 OctWEverton Premier League2382
- 10 OctWBournemouth Premier League2347
- 18 SepLBrentford Premier League2327
- 12 SepDHull City Premier League2404
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Liverpool: creative · possession-based (how Andoni Iraola plays) · Chelsea: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Xabi Alonso plays)