Premier League · Regular Season - 9
Liverpool vs Arsenal
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Anfield, Liverpool
Liverpool host Arsenal on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Liverpool 22%, draw 26%, Arsenal 51%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Liverpool €43.0M, Arsenal €54.2M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premier League matchday 9: 268 points.
- Premier League: David Raya is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2722).
- Arsenal's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Liverpool goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–29%
- 0–08%
- 2–16%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 4.0 pts
Team Elo: Liverpool 2356 · Arsenal 2624
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Liverpool · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2438
Arsenal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Good) · Elo 2671
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Liverpool
5th in Premier League · 12 pts from 7
- 17 OctWBrentford Premier League2454
- 14 OctWLask Linz UEFA Champions League2239
- 11 OctLManchester City Premier League2397
- 20 SepWBournemouth Premier League2463
- 15 SepWTottenham England League Cup2133
Arsenal
2nd in Premier League · 18 pts from 7
- 18 OctWNottingham Forest Premier League2625
- 13 OctWLille UEFA Champions League2596
- 10 OctWLeeds Premier League2622
- 19 SepLBrighton Premier League2624
- 15 SepWIpswich England League Cup2412
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 12 /7 | 58.5 | <1% | 27% | 0% | 5th |
| Arsenal | 18 /7 | 83.6 | 44% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Liverpool: creative · possession-based (how Andoni Iraola plays) · Arsenal: balanced profile (how Mikel Arteta plays)