Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 11
Lille vs Lyon
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
Lille host Lyon on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lille 41%, draw 29%, Lyon 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lille €11.9M, Lyon €10.0M.
- Home advantage makes Lille the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lille goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: Lille 2081 · Lyon 2086
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Lille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2139
Lyon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2215
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lille
2nd in Ligue 1 · 21 pts from 10
- 8 NovWRennes Ligue 12086
- 3 NovDBodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League2054
- 30 OctWLens Ligue 12060
- 25 OctDMonaco Ligue 12077
- 21 OctLGalatasaray UEFA Champions League2064
Lyon
5th in Ligue 1 · 17 pts from 10
- 8 NovLStade Brestois 29 Ligue 12100
- 5 NovDReal Sociedad UEFA Europa League2085
- 1 NovWAngers Ligue 12097
- 26 OctLParis Saint Germain Ligue 12131
- 22 OctL1899 Hoffenheim UEFA Europa League2040
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 21 /10 | 58.8 | <1% | 52% | 0% | 2nd |
| Lyon | 17 /10 | 55.0 | 0% | 30% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lille: possession-based (how Davide Ancelotti plays) · Lyon: possession-based (how Jorge Maciel plays)