Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 9
Lille vs Lens
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 20:05 UTC · Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
Lille host Lens on Fri 30 Oct 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lille 41%, draw 29%, Lens 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lille €13.2M, Lens €9.6M.
- Home advantage makes Lille the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lille goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.4 pts
Team Elo: Lille 2069 · Lens 2077
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Lille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 2126
Lens · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2170
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lille
4th in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 17 OctDStade Brestois 29 Ligue 12027
- 13 OctLArsenal UEFA Champions League2126
- 10 OctWLe Havre Ligue 12044
- 20 SepLNice Ligue 12129
- 13 SepWEstac Troyes Ligue 12157
Lens
8th in Ligue 1 · 10 pts from 7
- 17 OctWEstac Troyes Ligue 12047
- 13 OctLSporting CP UEFA Champions League2120
- 9 OctWLyon Ligue 12037
- 18 SepLMonaco Ligue 12045
- 13 SepDLe Mans Ligue 12076
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 14 /7 | 55.4 | <1% | 31% | 0% | 6th |
| Lens | 10 /7 | 52.4 | <1% | 17% | <1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lille: possession-based (how Davide Ancelotti plays) · Lens: balanced profile (how Dino Nicolas Toppmöller plays)