Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 6
Lille 1–0 Le Havre
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
LilleTeam 2086Le HavreTeam 1825- Dilane Bakwa 5'
We gave Lille 63% to win: they did.
- Dilane Bakwa – assist Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi –5'Lille:Dilane Bakwa – assist Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi –
- Maxima Goffi – for Tiago Santos –22'Lille:Maxima Goffi – for Tiago Santos –
- Hákon Arnar Haraldsson – for Gaëtan Perrin –57'Lille:Hákon Arnar Haraldsson – for Gaëtan Perrin –
- Ayase Ueda – for Olivier Giroud –57'Lille:Ayase Ueda – for Olivier Giroud –
- 61'Ayumu Seko –Le Havre:Ayumu Seko –
- 63'Rassoul Ndiaye –Le Havre:Rassoul Ndiaye –
- 69'Rayan Fofana – for Sota Nakamura –Le Havre:Rayan Fofana – for Sota Nakamura –
- 69'Junior Mwanga – for Josh Maja –Le Havre:Junior Mwanga – for Josh Maja –
- Calvin Verdonk – for Romain Perraud –73'Lille:Calvin Verdonk – for Romain Perraud –
- Osame Sahraoui – for Ngal'ayel Mukau –73'Lille:Osame Sahraoui – for Ngal'ayel Mukau –
- 76'Djibril Ouziad –Le Havre:Djibril Ouziad –
- 82'Kaito Mizuta – for Amir Richardson –Le Havre:Kaito Mizuta – for Amir Richardson –
- Maurits Kjaergaard –85'Lille:Maurits Kjaergaard –
- Maxima Goffi –90+2'Lille:Maxima Goffi –
Before kick-off (provisional): 63% · 22% · 15%(Lille · draw · Le Havre)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 1–0 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lille €9.9M, Le Havre €3.1M.
- Le Havre were without 2 expected starters: L. Mpasi (1850) and T. Pembélé (1761).
- Style contrast in possession (Ligue 1): Lille ranked #4 of 18, Le Havre #18.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lille
4th in Ligue 1 · 10 pts from 5
- 20 SepLNice Ligue 12129
- 13 SepWEstac Troyes Ligue 12157
- 8 SepLReal Betis UEFA Champions League2121
- 3 SepWToulouse Ligue 12062
- 28 AugDParis Saint Germain Ligue 12078
Le Havre
18th in Ligue 1 · 2 pts from 5
- 19 SepLToulouse Ligue 11818
- 12 SepDAngers Ligue 11826
- 5 SepLStade Brestois 29 Ligue 11875
- 29 AugDLyon Ligue 11833
- 23 AugLMonaco Ligue 11815
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 10 /5 | 57.1 | <1% | 42% | 0% | 4th |
| Le Havre | 2 /5 | 31.5 | 0% | 0% | 51% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Lille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2130
Le Havre · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Elite) · Elo 1908
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lille: possession-based (how Davide Ancelotti plays) · Le Havre: direct (how Didier Frédéric Thierry Digard plays)