Liga Pro · Placement Group - 2
Libertad 3–0 Leones del Norte
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja
LibertadTeam 1496Leones del NorteTeam 1421We gave Libertad 47% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 47% · 27% · 25%(Libertad · draw · Leones del Norte)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–0 had 5%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Libertad €303K, Leones del Norte €243K.
- Libertad's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.9 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Libertad
7th in Liga Pro · 41 pts from 30
- 20 SepWEmelec Ecuador Liga Pro1537
- 13 SepLIndependiente del Valle Ecuador Liga Pro1531
- 7 SepWDeportivo Cuenca Ecuador Liga Pro1472
- 4 SepDEmelec Ecuador Liga Pro1536
- 30 AugLAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1506
Leones del Norte
8th in Liga Pro · 39 pts from 30
- 19 SepDGuayaquil City FC Ecuador Liga Pro1478
- 13 SepLTecnico Universitario Ecuador Liga Pro1510
- 8 SepDMushuc Runa SC Ecuador Liga Pro1546
- 3 SepWOrense SC Ecuador Liga Pro1494
- 30 AugLEmelec Ecuador Liga Pro1505
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad | 44 /31 | 51.1 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 8th |
| Leones del Norte | 40 /31 | 46.4 | 0% | 0% | 13% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Libertad · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1569
Leones del Norte · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1636
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Libertad: balanced profile (how Pablo Buch Juan plays) · Leones del Norte: balanced profile (how Matias Cordoba plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.