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Liga Pro · Placement Group - 3

Libertad 4–0 Guayaquil City FC

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja

Libertad crestLibertadTeam 1521
4–0
Full time
HT 1–0
Guayaquil City FC crestGuayaquil City FCTeam 1461

Match story

Libertad · draw · Guayaquil City FC

Before kick-off: 46% · 28% · 26%

Live chances: Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0% at 90+6'1' · 0–0 · Libertad 46%, draw 28%, Guayaquil City FC 26%2' · 0–0 · Libertad 46%, draw 28%, Guayaquil City FC 26%3' · 0–0 · Libertad 46%, draw 28%, Guayaquil City FC 26%4' · 0–0 · Libertad 46%, draw 29%, Guayaquil City FC 26%5' · 0–0 · Libertad 45%, draw 29%, Guayaquil City FC 26%6' · 0–0 · Libertad 45%, draw 29%, Guayaquil City FC 26%7' · 0–0 · Libertad 45%, draw 29%, Guayaquil City FC 26%8' · 0–0 · Libertad 45%, draw 29%, Guayaquil City FC 26%9' · 0–0 · Libertad 45%, draw 29%, Guayaquil City FC 26%10' · 0–0 · Libertad 45%, draw 29%, Guayaquil City FC 26%11' · 0–0 · Libertad 45%, draw 29%, Guayaquil City FC 26%12' · 0–0 · Libertad 45%, draw 30%, Guayaquil City FC 26%13' · 0–0 · Libertad 44%, draw 30%, Guayaquil City FC 26%14' · 0–0 · Libertad 44%, draw 30%, Guayaquil City FC 26%16' · 0–0 · Libertad 44%, draw 30%, Guayaquil City FC 26%17' · 0–0 · Libertad 44%, draw 30%, Guayaquil City FC 26%18' · 0–0 · Libertad 44%, draw 30%, Guayaquil City FC 26%19' · 0–0 · Libertad 44%, draw 31%, Guayaquil City FC 26%20' · 0–0 · Libertad 43%, draw 31%, Guayaquil City FC 26%21' · 0–0 · Libertad 43%, draw 31%, Guayaquil City FC 26%22' · 0–0 · Libertad 43%, draw 31%, Guayaquil City FC 26%23' · 0–0 · Libertad 43%, draw 31%, Guayaquil City FC 26%24' · 0–0 · Libertad 43%, draw 32%, Guayaquil City FC 26%25' · 0–0 · Libertad 43%, draw 32%, Guayaquil City FC 26%26' · 0–0 · Libertad 42%, draw 32%, Guayaquil City FC 26%27' · 0–0 · Libertad 42%, draw 32%, Guayaquil City FC 26%28' · 0–0 · Libertad 42%, draw 32%, Guayaquil City FC 26%29' · 0–0 · Libertad 42%, draw 32%, Guayaquil City FC 26%30' · 0–0 · Libertad 42%, draw 33%, Guayaquil City FC 26%31' · 0–0 · Libertad 42%, draw 33%, Guayaquil City FC 26%32' · 0–0 · Libertad 41%, draw 33%, Guayaquil City FC 26%33' · 0–0 · Libertad 41%, draw 33%, Guayaquil City FC 25%35' · 0–0 · Libertad 41%, draw 34%, Guayaquil City FC 25%36' · 0–0 · Libertad 41%, draw 34%, Guayaquil City FC 25%38' · 0–0 · Libertad 40%, draw 35%, Guayaquil City FC 25%39' · 0–0 · Libertad 40%, draw 35%, Guayaquil City FC 25%40' · 1–0 · Libertad 72%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 8%41' · 1–0 · Libertad 72%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 8%42' · 1–0 · Libertad 73%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 8%43' · 1–0 · Libertad 73%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 7%44' · 1–0 · Libertad 73%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 7%45' · 1–0 · Libertad 73%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 7%45+1' · 1–0 · Libertad 73%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 7%45+3' · 1–0 · Libertad 73%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 7%45+4' · 1–0 · Libertad 73%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 7%45+5' · 1–0 · Libertad 73%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 7%45+6' · 1–0 · Libertad 73%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 7%45+7' · 1–0 · Libertad 73%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 7%HT · 1–0 · Libertad 73%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 7%46' · 1–0 · Libertad 73%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 7%47' · 1–0 · Libertad 73%, draw 20%, Guayaquil City FC 7%48' · 2–0 · Libertad 94%, draw 5%, Guayaquil City FC 1%49' · 2–0 · Libertad 94%, draw 5%, Guayaquil City FC 1%50' · 2–0 · Libertad 94%, draw 5%, Guayaquil City FC 1%51' · 2–0 · Libertad 94%, draw 5%, Guayaquil City FC 1%52' · 2–0 · Libertad 94%, draw 5%, Guayaquil City FC 1%53' · 2–0 · Libertad 95%, draw 5%, Guayaquil City FC 1%54' · 2–0 · Libertad 95%, draw 4%, Guayaquil City FC 1%55' · 2–0 · Libertad 95%, draw 4%, Guayaquil City FC 1%56' · 2–0 · Libertad 95%, draw 4%, Guayaquil City FC 1%57' · 2–0 · Libertad 95%, draw 4%, Guayaquil City FC 1%58' · 2–0 · Libertad 95%, draw 4%, Guayaquil City FC 1%59' · 2–0 · Libertad 95%, draw 4%, Guayaquil City FC 1%60' · 3–0 · Libertad 99%, draw 1%, Guayaquil City FC 0%61' · 3–0 · Libertad 99%, draw 1%, Guayaquil City FC 0%62' · 3–0 · Libertad 99%, draw 1%, Guayaquil City FC 0%63' · 3–0 · Libertad 99%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%64' · 3–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%65' · 3–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%66' · 3–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%67' · 3–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%68' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%69' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%70' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%71' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%72' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%73' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%74' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%75' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%76' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%77' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%78' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%80' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%81' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%82' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%83' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%84' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%85' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%86' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%87' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%88' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%89' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%90' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%90+1' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%90+2' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%90+3' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%90+4' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%90+5' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%90+6' · 4–0 · Libertad 100%, draw 0%, Guayaquil City FC 0%

Last reading, 90+6': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Libertad 46% to win: they did.

  1. 16'Libertad:Bryan Caicedo 1633 +10
  2. 23'Libertad:Rodrigo Morinigo 1618 +14
  3. 40'Libertad:Gabriel Cortez 1571 +49 assist Jostin Bravo 1615 +42
  4. 48'Libertad:Vilinton German Branda Merlin 1622 +33 assist Jostin Bravo 1615 +42
  5. 55'Guayaquil City FC:P. González 1625 −21
  6. 59'Libertad:Vilinton German Branda Merlin 1622 +33 assist Elvis Patta 1603 +35
  7. 65'Libertad:cristhian valencia 1582 −4* for Edu Pineda 1542 +13
  8. 65'Libertad:Enrique Rafael Caicedo Borja 1368 +9 for Antony Chere 1549 +12
  9. 67'Libertad:Jackson Rodriguez 1669 +28 assist Vilinton German Branda Merlin 1622 +33
  10. 68'Guayaquil City FC:S Laurino 1547 −2 for Pablo Mancilla 1342 −6
  11. 76'Libertad:Hancel Batalla 1483 −5* for Vilinton German Branda Merlin 1622 +33
  12. 76'Libertad:Carlos Gruezo 1415 −4* for Bryan Caicedo 1633 +10
  13. 79'Guayaquil City FC:Kevin Sambonino 1370 0 for Dixon Arroyo 1571 −16
  14. 79'Guayaquil City FC:Jonathan Miller Ordóñez Cruz 1282 −8* for R. Arias 1568 −9
  15. 80'Libertad:Publio Del Piero Mina Loor 1327 +3* for David Cabezas 1649 +9
  16. 90+5'Guayaquil City FC:Manuel de Jesús Palma Escobar 1256 −9* for Edinson Mero 1569 −12
  17. 90+6'Guayaquil City FC:Anderson Naula 1400 −1 for Junior Ayovi 1301 0

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

5-4-1Formations4-2-3-1
GJ. Pinos1487−5
DR. Caicedo1605−25
DY. Rodríguez1583−16
DE. Ladines12250
DR. Arias1568−9
MD. Arroyo1571−16
MP. Mancilla1342−6
MJ. Ayovi13010
MP. González1625−21
ME. Mero1569−12
FD. Dorregaray1487−6
CP. Gavilánez1587−26
Before kick-off: 46% · 28% · 26%(Libertad · draw · Guayaquil City FC)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 4–0 had 2%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Libertad €299K, Guayaquil City FC €226K.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Libertad

7th in Liga Pro · 41 pts from 30

  • 9 OctWLeones del Norte 1566
  • 20 SepWEmelec 1537
  • 13 SepLIndependiente del Valle 1531
  • 7 SepWDeportivo Cuenca 1472
  • 4 SepDEmelec 1536

Guayaquil City FC

9th in Liga Pro · 39 pts from 30

  • 10 OctWEmelec 1496
  • 19 SepDLeones del Norte 1539
  • 12 SepWMushuc Runa SC 1485
  • 8 SepLOrense SC 1497
  • 2 SepLDeportivo Cuenca 1529

Season outlook

From the Liga Pro simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Libertad47 /3252.60%<1%0%7th
Guayaquil City FC43 /3247.90%0%3%10th
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Liga Pro

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

D. Cabezas
D. Cabezas

Libertad · +2.3 (Average) · Elo 1640

D. Arroyo
D. Arroyo

Guayaquil City FC · +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1588

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Pablo Buch Juan

Coach DNA: –

Pool Geovanny Gavilánez Solís

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Libertad: balanced profile (how Pablo Buch Juan plays) · Guayaquil City FC: balanced profile (how Pool Geovanny Gavilánez Solís plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.