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Division Profesional - Clausura · Clausura - 14

Libertad Asuncion 2–2 Club Guarani

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 22:20 UTC · Dr. Nicolás Leoz, Asunción

Libertad Asuncion crestLibertad AsuncionTeam 1615
2–2
Full time
HT 1–1
Club Guarani crestClub GuaraniTeam 1512

Match story

Libertad Asuncion · draw · Club Guarani

Before kick-off: 52% · 26% · 22%

Live chances: Libertad Asuncion 1%, draw 99%, Club Guarani 1% at 90+6'2' · 0–0 · Libertad Asuncion 52%, draw 27%, Club Guarani 22%4' · 0–0 · Libertad Asuncion 51%, draw 27%, Club Guarani 22%5' · 0–0 · Libertad Asuncion 51%, draw 27%, Club Guarani 22%6' · 0–0 · Libertad Asuncion 51%, draw 27%, Club Guarani 22%7' · 0–0 · Libertad Asuncion 51%, draw 27%, Club Guarani 22%8' · 0–0 · Libertad Asuncion 51%, draw 27%, Club Guarani 22%9' · 0–0 · Libertad Asuncion 51%, draw 28%, Club Guarani 22%10' · 0–0 · Libertad Asuncion 50%, draw 28%, Club Guarani 22%11' · 0–0 · Libertad Asuncion 50%, draw 28%, Club Guarani 22%12' · 0–0 · Libertad Asuncion 50%, draw 28%, Club Guarani 22%13' · 0–0 · Libertad Asuncion 50%, draw 28%, Club Guarani 22%14' · 0–0 · Libertad Asuncion 50%, draw 29%, Club Guarani 22%15' · 0–0 · Libertad Asuncion 49%, draw 29%, Club Guarani 22%17' · 1–0 · Libertad Asuncion 77%, draw 16%, Club Guarani 7%18' · 1–0 · Libertad Asuncion 77%, draw 16%, Club Guarani 7%19' · 1–0 · Libertad Asuncion 77%, draw 16%, Club Guarani 7%20' · 1–0 · Libertad Asuncion 77%, draw 16%, Club Guarani 7%21' · 1–0 · Libertad Asuncion 77%, draw 16%, Club Guarani 7%21' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 48%, draw 30%, Club Guarani 22%23' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 48%, draw 30%, Club Guarani 22%24' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 47%, draw 31%, Club Guarani 22%25' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 47%, draw 31%, Club Guarani 22%26' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 47%, draw 31%, Club Guarani 22%28' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 47%, draw 31%, Club Guarani 22%29' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 46%, draw 32%, Club Guarani 22%30' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 46%, draw 32%, Club Guarani 22%31' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 46%, draw 32%, Club Guarani 22%32' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 46%, draw 33%, Club Guarani 22%33' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 45%, draw 33%, Club Guarani 22%34' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 45%, draw 33%, Club Guarani 22%36' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 45%, draw 34%, Club Guarani 22%37' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 44%, draw 34%, Club Guarani 22%39' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 44%, draw 35%, Club Guarani 22%40' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 43%, draw 35%, Club Guarani 22%41' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 43%, draw 35%, Club Guarani 22%43' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 42%, draw 36%, Club Guarani 21%44' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 42%, draw 36%, Club Guarani 21%45+1' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 41%, draw 37%, Club Guarani 21%HT · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 41%, draw 38%, Club Guarani 21%46' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 40%, draw 38%, Club Guarani 21%47' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 40%, draw 39%, Club Guarani 21%48' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 40%, draw 39%, Club Guarani 21%49' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 39%, draw 40%, Club Guarani 21%51' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 39%, draw 41%, Club Guarani 21%53' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 38%, draw 42%, Club Guarani 20%54' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 37%, draw 43%, Club Guarani 20%56' · 1–1 · Libertad Asuncion 36%, draw 44%, Club Guarani 20%58' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 12%, draw 28%, Club Guarani 60%59' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 12%, draw 28%, Club Guarani 61%60' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 11%, draw 27%, Club Guarani 61%62' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 11%, draw 27%, Club Guarani 62%63' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 10%, draw 27%, Club Guarani 63%64' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 10%, draw 27%, Club Guarani 64%65' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 9%, draw 26%, Club Guarani 64%66' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 9%, draw 26%, Club Guarani 65%67' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 8%, draw 26%, Club Guarani 66%68' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 8%, draw 26%, Club Guarani 66%69' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 8%, draw 25%, Club Guarani 67%70' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 7%, draw 25%, Club Guarani 68%71' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 7%, draw 25%, Club Guarani 68%72' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 6%, draw 24%, Club Guarani 69%73' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 6%, draw 24%, Club Guarani 70%74' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 6%, draw 23%, Club Guarani 71%75' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 5%, draw 23%, Club Guarani 72%76' · 1–2 · Libertad Asuncion 5%, draw 23%, Club Guarani 73%77' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 23%, draw 62%, Club Guarani 14%78' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 22%, draw 64%, Club Guarani 14%79' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 22%, draw 65%, Club Guarani 13%80' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 21%, draw 66%, Club Guarani 13%81' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 20%, draw 68%, Club Guarani 13%82' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 19%, draw 69%, Club Guarani 12%83' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 18%, draw 71%, Club Guarani 11%84' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 17%, draw 72%, Club Guarani 11%85' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 16%, draw 74%, Club Guarani 10%86' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 15%, draw 75%, Club Guarani 10%87' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 14%, draw 77%, Club Guarani 9%88' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 13%, draw 79%, Club Guarani 8%89' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 11%, draw 81%, Club Guarani 8%90' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 10%, draw 83%, Club Guarani 7%90+1' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 9%, draw 85%, Club Guarani 6%90+2' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 7%, draw 88%, Club Guarani 5%90+3' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 6%, draw 90%, Club Guarani 4%90+4' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 4%, draw 93%, Club Guarani 3%90+5' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 3%, draw 96%, Club Guarani 2%90+6' · 2–2 · Libertad Asuncion 1%, draw 99%, Club Guarani 1%

Last reading, 90+6': 1% · 99% · 1%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Libertad Asuncion 52% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 16'Libertad Asuncion:Gustavo Aguilar 1613 0
  2. 21'Club Guarani:Maximiliano Nahuel Añasco Dornells 1554 +10*
  3. 25'Club Guarani:Victor·Cespedes 1305 +9*
  4. 45'Libertad Asuncion:Thiago Ismael Fernández Martínez 1381 0 for Robert Rojas 1752 −2
  5. 45'Club Guarani:Diego·Fernandez 1444 +7 for Martín Maldonado 1316 +9
  6. 56'Club Guarani:Federico Carrizo 1706 −8 (own goal)
  7. 61'Libertad Asuncion:Agustín Manzur 1737 −8* for Federico Carrizo 1706 −8
  8. 61'Libertad Asuncion:Ivan Emanuel Ramirez Ferreira 1654 −8* for Hugo Fernandez 1614 −1
  9. 61'Libertad Asuncion:Rodrigo Villalba 1578 0 for Ivan Franco 1663 0
  10. 65'Club Guarani:Miguel Jacquet 1611 −8* for Maximiliano Nahuel Añasco Dornells 1554 +10*
  11. 75'Club Guarani:Jorge Recalde 1449 +5
  12. 75'Club Guarani:Cristian Leandro Allende 1635 +4
  13. 77'Libertad Asuncion:Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez 1675 0 (pen.)
  14. 81'Club Guarani:Fernando Fernandez 1515 −5 for Victor·Cespedes 1305 +9*
  15. 81'Club Guarani:Thiago Ezequiel Romero 1358 −5* for Jorge Recalde 1449 +5
  16. 83'Libertad Asuncion:Marcelo Fernández 1661 0 for Gustavo Aguilar 1613 0
  17. 85'Club Guarani:L. Martínez 1681 +5
  18. 87'Club Guarani:J. Llano 1477 0 for Giovanni Emanuel Gómez Lezcano 1276 +19
  19. 90+3'Libertad Asuncion:Agustín Manzur 1737 −8*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-4-2Formations4-1-4-1
GR. Morínigo17440
DG. Flores1890−10
DA. Benítez1705−12*
DR. Rojas1752−2
DN. Giménez1692−1
MF. Carrizo1706−8
MH. Fernández1614−1
ML. Sanabria1616−1
MI. Franco16630
FG. Aguilar16130
FE. Vera16750
CNelson Valdez15670
GM. Martínez1615+21
DA. Méndez1694+3
DI. Segovia1619+7
DT. Servín1648+6
DL. Allende1635+4
ML. Martínez1681+5
MM. Maldonado1316+9
MM. Añasco1554+10*
MG. Gómez1276+19
MV. Céspedes1305+9*
FJ. Recalde1449+5
CF. Arce1692+9
Before kick-off: 52% · 26% · 22%(Libertad Asuncion · draw · Club Guarani)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–2 had 5%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Libertad Asuncion €573K, Club Guarani €357K.
  • Style contrast in pressing & duels (Division Profesional - Clausura): Libertad Asuncion ranked #9 of 12, Club Guarani #3.
  • Club Guarani were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Libertad Asuncion

2nd in Division Profesional - Clausura · 26 pts from 13

  • 5 OctWDeportivo Recoleta 1689
  • 28 SepLOlimpia 1691
  • 19 SepDSportivo Ameliano 1659
  • 11 SepW2 de Mayo 1629
  • 6 SepWRubio NU 1644

Club Guarani

6th in Division Profesional - Clausura · 21 pts from 13

  • 3 OctDClub Sp. San Lorenzo 1564
  • 25 SepWSportivo Luqueno 1545
  • 18 SepWSportivo Trinidense 1552
  • 12 SepDCerro Porteno 1525
  • 7 SepWDeportivo Recoleta 1531

Season outlook

From the Division Profesional - Clausura simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Libertad Asuncion26 /1342.437%93%0%1st
Club Guarani21 /1333.41%24%<1%7th
Libertad Asuncion
Club Guarani

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Division Profesional - Clausura

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

F. Carrizo
F. Carrizo

Libertad Asuncion · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1713

L. Martínez
L. Martínez

Club Guarani · +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1676

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Nelson Valdez

Coach DNA: –

Francisco Javier Arce Rolón

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Libertad Asuncion: possession-based (how Nelson Valdez plays) · Club Guarani: balanced profile (how Francisco Javier Arce Rolón plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.