First League · Regular Season - 15
Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia
Levski Sofia host Lokomotiv Sofia on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Levski Sofia 74%, draw 16%, Lokomotiv Sofia 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Levski Sofia €1.0M, Lokomotiv Sofia €245K.
- Draw chance 16%, below the First League average of 24% this round.
- Style contrast in dribbling (First League): Levski Sofia rank #2 of 16, Lokomotiv Sofia #14.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Levski Sofia goals first.
- 2–014%
- 1–013%
- 3–011%
- 2–19%
- 1–18%
- 3–17%
- Other scores38%
Team Elo: Levski Sofia 1779 · Lokomotiv Sofia 1379
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Levski Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1843
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Levski Sofia
2nd in First League · 32 pts from 13
- 8 NovLCSKA Sofia Bulgarian First League1779
- 5 NovWJagiellonia UEFA Europa League1824
- 31 OctWDunav Ruse Bulgarian First League1755
- 27 OctDArda Kardzhali Bulgarian First League1770
- 22 OctWPlzen UEFA Europa League1786
Lokomotiv Sofia
14th in First League · 9 pts from 14
- 6 NovLSeptemvri Sofia Bulgarian First League1410
- 30 OctLBotev Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1365
- 24 OctDBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1393
- 10 OctDLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1374
- 20 SepWSpartak Varna Bulgarian First League1369
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 32 /13 | 57.2 | 31% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 9 /14 | 22.1 | 0% | 0% | 63% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Levski Sofia: shot-heavy · creative (how Julio Velázquez plays) · Lokomotiv Sofia: balanced profile (how L. Penev plays)