First League · Regular Season - 13
Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia
Levski Sofia host CSKA Sofia on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Levski Sofia 39%, draw 29%, CSKA Sofia 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Levski Sofia €978K, CSKA Sofia €1.3M.
- Home advantage makes Levski Sofia the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- First League: F. Lapoukhov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1901).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Levski Sofia goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Levski Sofia 1757 · CSKA Sofia 1787
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Levski Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1823
CSKA Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1901
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Levski Sofia
1st in First League · 28 pts from 10
- 15 OctDNEC Nijmegen UEFA Europa League1778
- 11 OctWCherno More Varna Bulgarian First League1736
- 17 SepLRed Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League1788
- 13 SepDBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1749
- 5 SepWCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1753
CSKA Sofia
2nd in First League · 27 pts from 11
- 15 OctLMonaco UEFA Conference League1837
- 11 OctWCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1820
- 20 SepDLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1782
- 16 SepWLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1776
- 12 SepWArda Kardzhali Bulgarian First League1716
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 28 /10 | 56.6 | 37% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
| CSKA Sofia | 27 /11 | 56.5 | 38% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Levski Sofia: shot-heavy · creative (how Julio Velázquez Santiago plays) · CSKA Sofia: creative · shot-heavy (how Markus Gisdol plays)