Liga Pro · Placement Group - 4
Leones del Norte vs Libertad
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra, Ibarra
Leones del Norte host Libertad on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Liga Pro); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Leones del Norte 35%, draw 29%, Libertad 36%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Leones del Norte €227K, Libertad €287K.
- Leones del Norte's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Leones del Norte goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 1–08%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Leones del Norte 1491 · Libertad 1578
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Leones del Norte · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1533
Libertad · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Average) · Elo 1649
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Leones del Norte
8th in Liga Pro · 39 pts from 30
- 18 OctLEmelec Ecuador Liga Pro1448
- 9 OctLLibertad Ecuador Liga Pro1483
- 19 SepDGuayaquil City FC Ecuador Liga Pro1478
- 13 SepLTecnico Universitario Ecuador Liga Pro1510
- 8 SepDMushuc Runa SC Ecuador Liga Pro1546
Libertad
7th in Liga Pro · 41 pts from 30
- 17 OctWGuayaquil City FC Ecuador Liga Pro1580
- 9 OctWLeones del Norte Ecuador Liga Pro1566
- 20 SepWEmelec Ecuador Liga Pro1537
- 13 SepLIndependiente del Valle Ecuador Liga Pro1531
- 7 SepWDeportivo Cuenca Ecuador Liga Pro1472
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones del Norte | 40 /33 | 43.7 | 0% | 0% | 37% | 14th |
| Libertad | 50 /33 | 54.1 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Leones del Norte: balanced profile (how Matías Jesús Córdoba plays) · Libertad: balanced profile (how Pablo Buch Juan plays)