Liga Pro · Placement Group - 6
Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra, Ibarra
Leones del Norte host Guayaquil City FC on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Liga Pro); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Leones del Norte 39%, draw 29%, Guayaquil City FC 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Leones del Norte €232K, Guayaquil City FC €258K.
- Home advantage makes Leones del Norte the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Leones del Norte's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Leones del Norte goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Leones del Norte 1491 · Guayaquil City FC 1518
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Leones del Norte · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1533
Guayaquil City FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1571
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Leones del Norte
8th in Liga Pro · 39 pts from 30
- 18 OctLEmelec Ecuador Liga Pro1448
- 9 OctLLibertad Ecuador Liga Pro1483
- 19 SepDGuayaquil City FC Ecuador Liga Pro1478
- 13 SepLTecnico Universitario Ecuador Liga Pro1510
- 8 SepDMushuc Runa SC Ecuador Liga Pro1546
Guayaquil City FC
9th in Liga Pro · 39 pts from 30
- 17 OctLLibertad Ecuador Liga Pro1504
- 10 OctWEmelec Ecuador Liga Pro1496
- 19 SepDLeones del Norte Ecuador Liga Pro1539
- 12 SepWMushuc Runa SC Ecuador Liga Pro1485
- 8 SepLOrense SC Ecuador Liga Pro1497
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones del Norte | 40 /33 | 43.7 | 0% | 0% | 39% | 14th |
| Guayaquil City FC | 43 /33 | 46.6 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Leones del Norte: balanced profile (how M. Córdoba plays) · Guayaquil City FC: balanced profile (how P. Gavilánez plays)