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Liga Pro · Placement Group - 3

Leones del Norte 1–3 Emelec

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Jaime Teran Olympic Stadium, Atuntaqui

Leones del Norte crestLeones del NorteTeam 1418
1–3
Full time
HT 0–0
Emelec crestEmelecTeam 1588

Match story

Leones del Norte · draw · Emelec

Before kick-off: 28% · 29% · 42%

Live chances: Leones del Norte 0%, draw 0%, Emelec 100% at 90+8'3' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 30%, Emelec 42%4' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 30%, Emelec 42%5' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 30%, Emelec 42%6' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 30%, Emelec 42%7' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 30%, Emelec 42%8' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 30%, Emelec 42%9' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 30%, Emelec 42%10' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 30%, Emelec 42%11' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 31%, Emelec 41%12' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 31%, Emelec 41%13' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 31%, Emelec 41%14' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 31%, Emelec 41%15' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 31%, Emelec 41%16' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 31%, Emelec 41%17' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 31%, Emelec 41%18' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 32%, Emelec 41%20' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 32%, Emelec 40%21' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 32%, Emelec 40%22' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 32%, Emelec 40%23' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 32%, Emelec 40%24' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 33%, Emelec 40%25' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 33%, Emelec 40%26' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 33%, Emelec 40%27' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 28%, draw 33%, Emelec 39%28' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 33%, Emelec 39%29' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 33%, Emelec 39%30' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 34%, Emelec 39%31' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 34%, Emelec 39%32' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 34%, Emelec 39%33' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 34%, Emelec 38%34' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 35%, Emelec 38%35' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 35%, Emelec 38%36' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 35%, Emelec 38%37' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 35%, Emelec 38%38' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 36%, Emelec 37%39' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 36%, Emelec 37%40' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 36%, Emelec 37%41' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 27%, draw 36%, Emelec 37%43' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 26%, draw 37%, Emelec 36%44' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 26%, draw 37%, Emelec 36%45' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 26%, draw 38%, Emelec 36%45+1' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 26%, draw 38%, Emelec 36%45+2' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 26%, draw 38%, Emelec 36%HT · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 26%, draw 39%, Emelec 35%46' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 26%, draw 39%, Emelec 35%47' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 26%, draw 39%, Emelec 35%48' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 26%, draw 40%, Emelec 35%49' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 25%, draw 40%, Emelec 34%50' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 25%, draw 41%, Emelec 34%51' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 25%, draw 41%, Emelec 34%52' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 25%, draw 42%, Emelec 33%53' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 25%, draw 42%, Emelec 33%54' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 25%, draw 43%, Emelec 33%55' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 24%, draw 43%, Emelec 32%56' · 0–0 · Leones del Norte 24%, draw 44%, Emelec 32%57' · 1–0 · Leones del Norte 66%, draw 25%, Emelec 9%58' · 1–0 · Leones del Norte 67%, draw 25%, Emelec 9%59' · 1–0 · Leones del Norte 67%, draw 25%, Emelec 8%60' · 1–0 · Leones del Norte 67%, draw 25%, Emelec 8%61' · 1–0 · Leones del Norte 68%, draw 24%, Emelec 8%62' · 1–0 · Leones del Norte 68%, draw 24%, Emelec 7%63' · 1–1 · Leones del Norte 22%, draw 48%, Emelec 29%64' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 6%, draw 22%, Emelec 73%65' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 5%, draw 21%, Emelec 73%66' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 5%, draw 21%, Emelec 74%67' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 5%, draw 21%, Emelec 74%68' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 5%, draw 21%, Emelec 75%69' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 5%, draw 20%, Emelec 75%70' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 4%, draw 20%, Emelec 76%71' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 4%, draw 20%, Emelec 76%72' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 4%, draw 20%, Emelec 76%73' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 4%, draw 19%, Emelec 77%74' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 3%, draw 19%, Emelec 78%75' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 3%, draw 19%, Emelec 78%76' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 3%, draw 18%, Emelec 79%77' · 2–2 · Leones del Norte 17%, draw 61%, Emelec 22%78' · 2–2 · Leones del Norte 17%, draw 62%, Emelec 21%79' · 2–2 · Leones del Norte 16%, draw 64%, Emelec 20%80' · 2–2 · Leones del Norte 16%, draw 65%, Emelec 19%81' · 2–2 · Leones del Norte 15%, draw 66%, Emelec 19%82' · 2–2 · Leones del Norte 14%, draw 68%, Emelec 18%83' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 2%, draw 15%, Emelec 84%84' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 1%, draw 14%, Emelec 85%85' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 1%, draw 13%, Emelec 85%86' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 1%, draw 13%, Emelec 86%87' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 1%, draw 12%, Emelec 87%88' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 1%, draw 11%, Emelec 88%89' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 1%, draw 10%, Emelec 89%90' · 1–2 · Leones del Norte 1%, draw 9%, Emelec 91%90+1' · 1–3 · Leones del Norte 0%, draw 0%, Emelec 100%90+2' · 1–3 · Leones del Norte 0%, draw 0%, Emelec 100%90+3' · 1–3 · Leones del Norte 0%, draw 0%, Emelec 100%90+4' · 1–3 · Leones del Norte 0%, draw 0%, Emelec 100%90+5' · 1–3 · Leones del Norte 0%, draw 0%, Emelec 100%90+6' · 1–3 · Leones del Norte 0%, draw 0%, Emelec 100%90+7' · 1–3 · Leones del Norte 0%, draw 0%, Emelec 100%90+8' · 1–3 · Leones del Norte 0%, draw 0%, Emelec 100%

Last reading, 90+8': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Emelec 42% to win: they did.

  1. 14'Emelec:Francisco Pizzini 1685 −2*
  2. 45'Emelec:Ignacio Guerrico 1732 +5 for Estalin Segura 1717 +6
  3. 52'Leones del Norte:Thomas Amilivia 1458 −1 for Jonathan Ronaldo Arroyo 1434 0
  4. 57'Leones del Norte:Martín Caramuto 1243 0
  5. 61'Leones del Norte:Alexis Nicolás Monserrat 1564 −10
  6. 62'Emelec:Ronie Carrillo 1653 +45 (pen.)
  7. 63'Emelec:Teodoro Arce 1461 +9 for Francisco Pizzini 1685 −2*
  8. 64'Emelec:Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomez 1642 +44
  9. 67'Emelec:Teodoro Arce 1461 +9
  10. 69'Emelec:Ezequiel Luis Medrán
  11. 77'Emelec:Luca Klimowicz 1668 +2 for Ronie Carrillo 1653 +45
  12. 77'Emelec:Víctor Griffith 1697 +2 for Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomez 1642 +44
  13. 85'Leones del Norte:Jordan Eduardo Morán Cortez 1549 0 for Alexis Nicolás Monserrat 1564 −10
  14. 85'Leones del Norte:Charles Velez 1479 −6 for Segundo Portocarrero 1590 −20*
  15. 90+1'Emelec:Reixon David Saya Paredes 1510 +97 assist Teodoro Arce 1461 +9
  16. 90+2'Emelec:Jose Francisco Cevallos 1599 −11* for Teodoro Arce 1461 +9

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GJ. Arroyo12330
DR. Arroyo14340
DN. Monserrat1564−10
DB. Kreiman14540
DS. Portocarrero1590−20*
MT. Coppo1533−6
MEmiliano Griffa1375−1
MM. Caramuto12430
MM. Luque1515−4
MC. Solano1605−13
FJuan Luis Anangonó León1293−10
CM. Córdoba13860
GP. Ortíz1670+12
DO. Herrera1384+47
DF. León1637+15
DE. Segura1717+6
DA. Leguizamón1671+2*
MReixon Saya1510+97
MJ. Valverde1574+25
MJ. Ruíz1642+44
MA. Mina1693+14
MF. Pizzini1685−2*
FR. Carrillo1653+45
CEzequiel Medrán1596+46
Before kick-off: 28% · 29% · 42%(Leones del Norte · draw · Emelec)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–3 had 4%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Leones del Norte €224K, Emelec €342K.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Leones del Norte

8th in Liga Pro · 39 pts from 30

  • 9 OctLLibertad 1483
  • 19 SepDGuayaquil City FC 1478
  • 13 SepLTecnico Universitario 1510
  • 8 SepDMushuc Runa SC 1546
  • 3 SepWOrense SC 1494

Emelec

10th in Liga Pro · 39 pts from 30

  • 10 OctLGuayaquil City FC 1586
  • 20 SepLLibertad 1586
  • 13 SepLMacara 1636
  • 8 SepWManta FC 1599
  • 4 SepDLibertad 1620

Season outlook

From the Liga Pro simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Leones del Norte40 /3245.20%0%18%12th
Emelec39 /3245.10%0%22%13th
Leones del Norte
Emelec

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Liga Pro

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

S. Portocarrero
S. Portocarrero

Leones del Norte · +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1610

R. Carrillo
R. Carrillo

Emelec · +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1609

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Matías Jesús Córdoba

Coach DNA: –

Ezequiel Luis Medrán

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Leones del Norte: balanced profile (how Matías Jesús Córdoba plays) · Emelec: balanced profile (how Ezequiel Luis Medrán plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.