Liga MX · Apertura - 14
Leon vs Toluca
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estadio León, Leon
Leon host Toluca on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Liga MX); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Leon 30%, draw 29%, Toluca 41%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Leon €1.9M, Toluca €6.3M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Leon goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Leon 1917 · Toluca 2115
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Leon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 1991
Toluca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 2178
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Leon
7th in Liga MX · 18 pts from 12
- 18 OctLClub America Liga MX1927
- 10 OctDPuebla Liga MX1923
- 28 SepWFC Juarez Liga MX1911
- 21 SepDClub Queretaro Liga MX1963
- 15 SepWAtletico San Luis Liga MX1932
Toluca
2nd in Liga MX · 21 pts from 12
- 18 OctDAtletico San Luis Liga MX2116
- 10 OctLTigres UANL Liga MX2156
- 26 SepDCruz Azul Liga MX2132
- 21 SepLSantos Laguna Liga MX2173
- 16 SepWPuebla Liga MX2161
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 18 /12 | 23.5 | <1% | 5% | <1% | 9th |
| Toluca | 21 /12 | 29.5 | 14% | 71% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · possession-based
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Leon: balanced profile (how Javier Marcelo Gandolfi plays) · Toluca: balanced profile (how Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich plays)