Liga MX · Apertura - 16
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas
Mon 9 Nov 2026 · 02:00 UTC · Estadio León, Leon
Leon host Guadalajara Chivas on Mon 9 Nov 2026 (Liga MX); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Leon 35%, draw 29%, Guadalajara Chivas 36%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Leon €1.9M, Guadalajara Chivas €3.8M.
- Liga MX: J. Rangel is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2281).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Leon goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 1–09%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Leon 1938 · Guadalajara Chivas 2060
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Leon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.7 (Good) · Elo 2024
Guadalajara Chivas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.2 (Elite) · Elo 2257
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Leon
5th in Liga MX · 22 pts from 14
- 24 OctDToluca Liga MX1952
- 21 OctWTigres UANL Liga MX1925
- 18 OctLClub America Liga MX1927
- 10 OctDPuebla Liga MX1923
- 28 SepWFC Juarez Liga MX1911
Guadalajara Chivas
2nd in Liga MX · 26 pts from 14
- 25 OctWMonterrey Liga MX2048
- 21 OctWNecaxa Liga MX2023
- 17 OctDTigres UANL Liga MX2002
- 11 OctDAtlas Liga MX2023
- 26 SepLClub Queretaro Liga MX1997
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 22 /14 | 25.2 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 8th |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 26 /14 | 31.3 | 8% | 92% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Leon: balanced profile (how J. Gandolfi plays) · Guadalajara Chivas: balanced profile (how G. Milito plays)