Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 11
Lens vs Toulouse
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Lens host Toulouse on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lens 57%, draw 24%, Toulouse 18%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lens €8.9M, Toulouse €5.4M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lens goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 1–09%
- 3–16%
- 3–06%
- Other scores49%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–1expected 4.2 pts
Team Elo: Lens 2049 · Toulouse 1858
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Lens · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2111
Toulouse · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Elite) · Elo 2069
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lens
11th in Ligue 1 · 13 pts from 10
- 8 NovLMarseille Ligue 12045
- 4 NovLComo UEFA Champions League2079
- 30 OctLLille Ligue 12085
- 24 OctWParis FC Ligue 12111
- 21 OctLClub Brugge KV UEFA Champions League2066
Toulouse
12th in Ligue 1 · 13 pts from 10
- 6 NovWStrasbourg Ligue 11804
- 1 NovLMarseille Ligue 11884
- 25 OctDEstac Troyes Ligue 11948
- 16 OctWLe Mans Ligue 11919
- 10 OctDMonaco Ligue 11832
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 13 /10 | 49.3 | 0% | 7% | <1% | 8th |
| Toulouse | 13 /10 | 37.8 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lens: balanced profile (how D. Toppmöller plays) · Toulouse: balanced profile (how J. Askou plays)