Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 10
Lens vs Marseille
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Lens host Marseille on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lens 41%, draw 29%, Marseille 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lens €7.9M, Marseille €13.3M.
- Home advantage makes Lens the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lens goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.4 pts
Team Elo: Lens 2059 · Marseille 2063
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Lens · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2162
Marseille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2151
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lens
9th in Ligue 1 · 10 pts from 7
- 21 OctLClub Brugge KV UEFA Champions League2074
- 17 OctWEstac Troyes Ligue 12047
- 13 OctLSporting CP UEFA Champions League2120
- 9 OctWLyon Ligue 12037
- 18 SepLMonaco Ligue 12045
Marseille
10th in Ligue 1 · 9 pts from 7
- 22 OctLSturm Graz UEFA Europa League2024
- 18 OctWAngers Ligue 12072
- 15 OctLOlympiakos Piraeus UEFA Europa League2030
- 11 OctWEstac Troyes Ligue 12094
- 20 SepLParis Saint Germain Ligue 12118
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 10 /7 | 51.3 | 0% | 13% | <1% | 8th |
| Marseille | 9 /7 | 52.4 | 0% | 17% | <1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lens: balanced profile (how D. Toppmöller plays) · Marseille: possession-based (how Bruno Génésio plays)