Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 6
Lens 2–1 Lyon
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
LensTeam 2050LyonTeam 2129We gave Lyon 36% to win: Lens won.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 35% · 29% · 36%(Lens · draw · Lyon)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–1 had 8%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Lens €6.7M, Lyon €11.6M.
- Lens were without 1 expected starter: A. Sima (2095).
- Lyon were without 1 expected starter: M. Niakhaté (2224).
- Home advantage made Lens the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
- Lyon were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lens
15th in Ligue 1 · 4 pts from 5
- 18 SepLMonaco Ligue 12045
- 13 SepDLe Mans Ligue 12076
- 10 SepWSlavia Praha UEFA Champions League2059
- 5 SepLLorient Ligue 12061
- 29 AugLStrasbourg Ligue 12075
Lyon
2nd in Ligue 1 · 11 pts from 5
- 19 SepWRennes Ligue 12110
- 16 SepWAnderlecht UEFA Europa League2040
- 12 SepDParis FC Ligue 12104
- 4 SepWAuxerre Ligue 12095
- 29 AugDLe Havre Ligue 12060
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 4 /5 | 48.2 | 0% | 7% | 1% | 8th |
| Lyon | 11 /5 | 58.7 | 1% | 51% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Lens · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2207
Lyon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.0 (Good) · Elo 2264
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lens: balanced profile (how Dino Nicolas Toppmöller plays) · Lyon: possession-based (how Paulo Alexandre Rodrigues Fonseca plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.