Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 11
Leixoes vs Chaves
Sun 15 Nov 2026 · 15:30 UTC
Leixoes host Chaves on Sun 15 Nov 2026 (Segunda Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Leixoes 45%, draw 28%, Chaves 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Leixoes €264K, Chaves €296K.
- Style contrast in discipline (Segunda Liga): Leixoes rank #2 of 15, Chaves #15.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Leixoes goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Leixoes 1543 · Chaves 1506
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chaves · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1560
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Leixoes
11th in Segunda Liga · 10 pts from 8
- 24 OctLAcademica Liga Portugal 21540
- 10 OctLFC Porto B Liga Portugal 21517
- 11 SepDTorreense Liga Portugal 21540
- 6 SepWAmarante Liga Portugal 21550
- 29 AugWPortimonense Liga Portugal 21482
Chaves
14th in Segunda Liga · 8 pts from 8
- 23 OctWVizela Liga Portugal 21518
- 11 OctDLusitânia Lourosa Liga Portugal 21506
- 4 OctLFarense Liga Portugal 21509
- 30 AugLFelgueiras 1932 Liga Portugal 21444
- 8 AugLAcademica Liga Portugal 21419
Season outlook
From the Segunda Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes | 10 /8 | 46.8 | 2% | 14% | 7% | 10th |
| Chaves | 8 /8 | 42.4 | <1% | 4% | 22% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Leixoes: balanced profile (how Fangueiro plays) · Chaves: direct (how Vitor Martins plays)