Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 12
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Warsaw
Legia Warszawa host Lech Poznan on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Ekstraklasa); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Legia Warszawa 33%, draw 29%, Lech Poznan 38%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Legia Warszawa €1.0M, Lech Poznan €2.4M.
- Legia Warszawa are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Legia Warszawa goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–28%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Legia Warszawa 1808 · Lech Poznan 1935
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Legia Warszawa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 1957
Lech Poznan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2002
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Legia Warszawa
3rd in Ekstraklasa · 23 pts from 11
- 17 OctDCracovia Krakow Ekstraklasa1814
- 11 OctWWisla Krakow Ekstraklasa1794
- 20 SepWJagiellonia Ekstraklasa1772
- 13 SepDWidzew Łódź Ekstraklasa1798
- 5 SepWMotor Lublin Ekstraklasa1789
Lech Poznan
2nd in Ekstraklasa · 25 pts from 10
- 18 OctWKorona Kielce Ekstraklasa1940
- 15 OctLBayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League1954
- 10 OctWSlask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa1904
- 20 SepWRadomiak Radom Ekstraklasa1912
- 17 SepLCrystal Palace UEFA Europa League1925
Season outlook
From the Ekstraklasa simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legia Warszawa | 23 /11 | 58.2 | 6% | 73% | 0% | 4th |
| Lech Poznan | 25 /10 | 68.7 | 58% | 98% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Legia Warszawa: balanced profile (how Marek Papszun plays) · Lech Poznan: possession-based (how Niels Frederiksen plays)