Segunda División · Regular Season - 14
Leganes vs Burgos
Fri 13 Nov 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes
Leganes host Burgos on Fri 13 Nov 2026 (Segunda División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Leganes 41%, draw 29%, Burgos 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Leganes €1.3M, Burgos €1.0M.
- Home advantage makes Leganes the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Leganes goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Leganes 1776 · Burgos 1823
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Leganes · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Good) · Elo 1848
Burgos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1846
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Leganes
17th in Segunda División · 12 pts from 11
- 24 OctDMallorca Spain Segunda Division1706
- 16 OctLCordoba Spain Segunda Division1787
- 11 OctLAlmeria Spain Segunda Division1801
- 3 OctLCadiz Spain Segunda Division1841
- 28 SepLCastellón Spain Segunda Division1838
Burgos
6th in Segunda División · 20 pts from 11
- 26 OctWFC Andorra Spain Segunda Division1804
- 18 OctWSabadell Spain Segunda Division1804
- 12 OctLGranada CF Spain Segunda Division1811
- 3 OctLAlmeria Spain Segunda Division1787
- 27 SepWEldense Spain Segunda Division1836
Season outlook
From the Segunda División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes | 12 /11 | 56.4 | <1% | 2% | 3% | 11th |
| Burgos | 20 /11 | 65.8 | 2% | 20% | <1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 22nd on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Leganes: balanced profile (how Luis Carrión plays) · Burgos: balanced profile (how Sergio Francisco plays)