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Premier League · Regular Season - 7

Leeds 1–1 Manchester United

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Elland Road, Leeds

Leeds crestLeedsTeam 2351
1–1
Full time
HT 0–1
Manchester United crestManchester UnitedTeam 2373

Match story

Leeds · draw · Manchester United

Before kick-off: 40% · 29% · 32%

Live chances: Leeds 3%, draw 95%, Manchester United 2% at 90+5'2' · 0–0 · Leeds 40%, draw 29%, Manchester United 32%3' · 0–0 · Leeds 40%, draw 29%, Manchester United 32%4' · 0–0 · Leeds 39%, draw 29%, Manchester United 32%5' · 0–0 · Leeds 39%, draw 29%, Manchester United 32%6' · 0–0 · Leeds 39%, draw 29%, Manchester United 32%7' · 0–0 · Leeds 39%, draw 29%, Manchester United 32%8' · 0–0 · Leeds 39%, draw 29%, Manchester United 31%9' · 0–0 · Leeds 39%, draw 29%, Manchester United 31%10' · 0–0 · Leeds 39%, draw 30%, Manchester United 31%11' · 0–0 · Leeds 39%, draw 30%, Manchester United 31%12' · 0–0 · Leeds 39%, draw 30%, Manchester United 31%13' · 0–0 · Leeds 39%, draw 30%, Manchester United 31%14' · 0–0 · Leeds 39%, draw 30%, Manchester United 31%15' · 0–0 · Leeds 38%, draw 30%, Manchester United 31%16' · 0–0 · Leeds 38%, draw 30%, Manchester United 31%17' · 0–0 · Leeds 38%, draw 31%, Manchester United 31%18' · 0–0 · Leeds 38%, draw 31%, Manchester United 31%19' · 0–0 · Leeds 38%, draw 31%, Manchester United 31%20' · 0–0 · Leeds 38%, draw 31%, Manchester United 31%21' · 0–0 · Leeds 38%, draw 31%, Manchester United 31%22' · 0–0 · Leeds 38%, draw 31%, Manchester United 31%23' · 0–0 · Leeds 38%, draw 32%, Manchester United 31%24' · 0–0 · Leeds 38%, draw 32%, Manchester United 31%25' · 0–0 · Leeds 37%, draw 32%, Manchester United 31%26' · 0–0 · Leeds 37%, draw 32%, Manchester United 31%27' · 0–0 · Leeds 37%, draw 32%, Manchester United 31%28' · 0–0 · Leeds 37%, draw 32%, Manchester United 31%29' · 0–0 · Leeds 37%, draw 33%, Manchester United 30%30' · 0–0 · Leeds 37%, draw 33%, Manchester United 30%31' · 0–0 · Leeds 37%, draw 33%, Manchester United 30%32' · 0–0 · Leeds 37%, draw 33%, Manchester United 30%33' · 0–0 · Leeds 36%, draw 33%, Manchester United 30%34' · 0–0 · Leeds 36%, draw 34%, Manchester United 30%35' · 0–0 · Leeds 36%, draw 34%, Manchester United 30%36' · 0–1 · Leeds 18%, draw 27%, Manchester United 56%37' · 0–1 · Leeds 17%, draw 27%, Manchester United 56%39' · 0–1 · Leeds 17%, draw 27%, Manchester United 57%40' · 0–1 · Leeds 17%, draw 27%, Manchester United 57%41' · 0–1 · Leeds 16%, draw 27%, Manchester United 57%42' · 0–1 · Leeds 16%, draw 27%, Manchester United 57%43' · 0–1 · Leeds 16%, draw 27%, Manchester United 58%44' · 0–1 · Leeds 16%, draw 27%, Manchester United 58%45' · 0–1 · Leeds 15%, draw 27%, Manchester United 58%45+1' · 0–1 · Leeds 15%, draw 27%, Manchester United 58%45+2' · 0–1 · Leeds 15%, draw 27%, Manchester United 59%HT · 0–1 · Leeds 14%, draw 27%, Manchester United 59%47' · 0–1 · Leeds 14%, draw 27%, Manchester United 59%48' · 0–1 · Leeds 14%, draw 27%, Manchester United 60%49' · 0–1 · Leeds 13%, draw 27%, Manchester United 60%50' · 0–1 · Leeds 13%, draw 27%, Manchester United 60%51' · 0–1 · Leeds 13%, draw 26%, Manchester United 61%52' · 0–1 · Leeds 12%, draw 26%, Manchester United 61%53' · 1–1 · Leeds 32%, draw 41%, Manchester United 27%54' · 1–1 · Leeds 32%, draw 42%, Manchester United 27%55' · 1–1 · Leeds 31%, draw 42%, Manchester United 27%56' · 1–1 · Leeds 31%, draw 43%, Manchester United 26%57' · 1–1 · Leeds 30%, draw 43%, Manchester United 26%58' · 1–1 · Leeds 30%, draw 44%, Manchester United 26%59' · 1–1 · Leeds 30%, draw 45%, Manchester United 26%60' · 1–1 · Leeds 29%, draw 45%, Manchester United 25%61' · 1–1 · Leeds 29%, draw 46%, Manchester United 25%62' · 1–1 · Leeds 29%, draw 47%, Manchester United 25%63' · 1–1 · Leeds 28%, draw 47%, Manchester United 24%64' · 1–1 · Leeds 28%, draw 48%, Manchester United 24%65' · 1–1 · Leeds 27%, draw 49%, Manchester United 24%66' · 1–1 · Leeds 27%, draw 50%, Manchester United 23%67' · 1–1 · Leeds 27%, draw 50%, Manchester United 23%68' · 1–1 · Leeds 26%, draw 51%, Manchester United 23%69' · 1–1 · Leeds 26%, draw 52%, Manchester United 22%70' · 1–1 · Leeds 25%, draw 53%, Manchester United 22%71' · 1–1 · Leeds 25%, draw 54%, Manchester United 22%72' · 1–1 · Leeds 24%, draw 55%, Manchester United 21%73' · 1–1 · Leeds 24%, draw 56%, Manchester United 21%74' · 1–1 · Leeds 23%, draw 57%, Manchester United 20%75' · 1–1 · Leeds 22%, draw 58%, Manchester United 20%76' · 1–1 · Leeds 22%, draw 59%, Manchester United 19%77' · 1–1 · Leeds 21%, draw 60%, Manchester United 19%78' · 1–1 · Leeds 21%, draw 61%, Manchester United 18%79' · 1–1 · Leeds 20%, draw 63%, Manchester United 18%80' · 1–1 · Leeds 19%, draw 64%, Manchester United 17%81' · 1–1 · Leeds 18%, draw 65%, Manchester United 16%82' · 1–1 · Leeds 18%, draw 67%, Manchester United 16%83' · 1–1 · Leeds 17%, draw 68%, Manchester United 15%84' · 1–1 · Leeds 16%, draw 70%, Manchester United 14%85' · 1–1 · Leeds 15%, draw 71%, Manchester United 13%86' · 1–1 · Leeds 14%, draw 73%, Manchester United 13%87' · 1–1 · Leeds 13%, draw 75%, Manchester United 12%88' · 1–1 · Leeds 12%, draw 77%, Manchester United 11%89' · 1–1 · Leeds 11%, draw 79%, Manchester United 10%90+1' · 1–1 · Leeds 9%, draw 84%, Manchester United 8%90+2' · 1–1 · Leeds 7%, draw 86%, Manchester United 6%90+3' · 1–1 · Leeds 6%, draw 89%, Manchester United 5%90+4' · 1–1 · Leeds 4%, draw 92%, Manchester United 4%90+5' · 1–1 · Leeds 3%, draw 95%, Manchester United 2%

Last reading, 90+5': 3% · 95% · 2%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Leeds 40% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 17'Manchester United:Bruno Fernandes 2408 −3
  2. 19'Leeds:Gabriel Gudmundsson 2355 −1
  3. 35'Manchester United:Bryan Mbeumo 2417 +2 assist Youri Tielemans 2465 0
  4. 45'Manchester United:Noussair Mazraoui 2376 −8* for Lisandro Martínez 2390 −1
  5. 51'Leeds:Dominic Calvert-Lewin 2282 −2 assist Tarik Muharemovic 2383 −1
  6. 74'Leeds:Lukas Nmecha 2064 −1 for Noah Okafor 2283 0
  7. 74'Manchester United:Mason Mount 2259 0 for Carlos Baleba 2291 +1
  8. 81'Leeds:Sean Longstaff 2171 −9* for Ao Tanaka 2302 −1
  9. 84'Manchester United:Matheus Cunha 2381 0 for Youri Tielemans 2465 0
  10. 90+2'Leeds:Ethan Ampadu 2379 −1
  11. 90+2'Manchester United:Andrey Santos 2359 +1

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations4-2-3-1
GJ. Trafford2536−1
DJ. Justin2329−1
DN. Elvedi2404−3
DT. Muharemović2383−1
MJ. Bogle23190
ME. Ampadu2379−1
MA. Tanaka2302−1
MG. Gudmundsson2355−1
MA. Stach2241−1
MN. Okafor22830
FD. Calvert-Lewin2282−2
CD. Farke23360
GS. Lammens2417+1
DL. Yoro2324+2
DH. Maguire2306−1
DLisandro Martínez2390−1
DDiogo Dalot24090
MAndrey Santos2359+1
MC. Baleba2291+1
MBruno Fernandes2408−3
MY. Tielemans24650
MA. Diallo2396+1
FB. Mbeumo2417+2
CM. Carrick2301+3
Before kick-off: 40% · 29% · 32%(Leeds · draw · Manchester United)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%), and that was the result.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Leeds €19.7M, Manchester United €33.2M.
  • Home advantage made Leeds the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
  • Manchester United's expected eleven was in form: average +2.5 over 180 days.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Leeds

8th in Premier League · 9 pts from 6

  • 10 OctLArsenal 2344
  • 20 SepDCrystal Palace 2333
  • 14 SepWNewcastle 2287
  • 9 SepLChelsea 2231
  • 5 SepDBrighton 2300

Manchester United

14th in Premier League · 6 pts from 6

  • 13 OctLAtletico Madrid 2365
  • 10 OctDTottenham 2404
  • 20 SepDFulham 2414
  • 16 SepLBrighton 2242
  • 13 SepLManchester City 2419

Season outlook

From the Premier League simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Leeds9 /653.30%10%1%7th
Manchester United6 /653.40%11%1%8th
Leeds
Manchester United

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Premier League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

N. Elvedi
N. Elvedi

Leeds · +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2407

Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes

Manchester United · +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2411

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Daniel Farke

Coach DNA: possession-based · creative

Michael Carrick

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Leeds: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Daniel Farke plays) · Manchester United: creative (how Michael Carrick plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.