Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 14
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Stadion Poznan
Lech Poznan host Zaglebie Lubin on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Ekstraklasa); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lech Poznan 65%, draw 21%, Zaglebie Lubin 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lech Poznan €2.5M, Zaglebie Lubin €640K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Ekstraklasa matchday 14: 260 points.
- Draw chance 21%, below the Ekstraklasa average of 27% this round.
- Style contrast in possession (Ekstraklasa): Lech Poznan rank #1 of 19, Zaglebie Lubin #17.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lech Poznan goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Lech Poznan 1934 · Zaglebie Lubin 1674
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Lech Poznan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2002
Zaglebie Lubin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1710
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lech Poznan
2nd in Ekstraklasa · 25 pts from 10
- 22 OctDSunderland UEFA Europa League1937
- 18 OctWKorona Kielce Ekstraklasa1940
- 15 OctLBayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League1954
- 10 OctWSlask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa1904
- 20 SepWRadomiak Radom Ekstraklasa1912
Zaglebie Lubin
7th in Ekstraklasa · 18 pts from 11
- 18 OctWJagiellonia Ekstraklasa1682
- 10 OctLCracovia Krakow Ekstraklasa1698
- 20 SepLWisla Plock Ekstraklasa1683
- 15 SepWRaków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa1660
- 12 SepWGKS Katowice Ekstraklasa1634
Season outlook
From the Ekstraklasa simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 25 /10 | 68.4 | 57% | 98% | 0% | 1st |
| Zaglebie Lubin | 18 /11 | 45.1 | 0% | 5% | 5% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lech Poznan: possession-based (how Niels Frederiksen plays) · Zaglebie Lubin: direct (how Leszek Ojrzynski plays)