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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 7

Le Mans 0–3 Toulouse

Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · MMArena, Le Mans

Le Mans crestLe MansTeam 1709
0–3
Full time
HT 0–0
Toulouse crestToulouseTeam 1869

Match story

Le Mans · draw · Toulouse

Before kick-off: 29% · 28% · 42%

Live chances: Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100% at 90+7'2' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 28%, Toulouse 42%3' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 29%, Toulouse 42%4' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 29%, Toulouse 42%5' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 29%, Toulouse 42%6' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 29%, Toulouse 42%7' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 29%, Toulouse 42%8' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 29%, Toulouse 42%9' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 29%, Toulouse 41%11' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 30%, Toulouse 41%13' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 30%, Toulouse 41%14' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 30%, Toulouse 41%15' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 30%, Toulouse 41%16' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 31%, Toulouse 40%17' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 31%, Toulouse 40%18' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 31%, Toulouse 40%19' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 31%, Toulouse 40%20' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 31%, Toulouse 40%21' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 32%, Toulouse 40%22' · 0–0 · Le Mans 29%, draw 32%, Toulouse 40%24' · 0–0 · Le Mans 28%, draw 32%, Toulouse 39%25' · 0–0 · Le Mans 28%, draw 32%, Toulouse 39%27' · 0–0 · Le Mans 28%, draw 33%, Toulouse 39%28' · 0–0 · Le Mans 28%, draw 33%, Toulouse 39%30' · 0–0 · Le Mans 28%, draw 34%, Toulouse 38%31' · 0–0 · Le Mans 28%, draw 34%, Toulouse 38%32' · 0–0 · Le Mans 28%, draw 34%, Toulouse 38%33' · 0–0 · Le Mans 28%, draw 34%, Toulouse 38%34' · 0–0 · Le Mans 28%, draw 35%, Toulouse 38%35' · 0–0 · Le Mans 28%, draw 35%, Toulouse 37%36' · 0–0 · Le Mans 28%, draw 35%, Toulouse 37%37' · 0–0 · Le Mans 28%, draw 35%, Toulouse 37%38' · 0–0 · Le Mans 27%, draw 36%, Toulouse 37%39' · 0–0 · Le Mans 27%, draw 36%, Toulouse 37%40' · 0–0 · Le Mans 27%, draw 36%, Toulouse 36%42' · 0–0 · Le Mans 27%, draw 37%, Toulouse 36%43' · 0–0 · Le Mans 27%, draw 37%, Toulouse 36%44' · 0–0 · Le Mans 27%, draw 38%, Toulouse 35%45' · 0–0 · Le Mans 27%, draw 38%, Toulouse 35%45+1' · 0–0 · Le Mans 26%, draw 39%, Toulouse 35%45+2' · 0–0 · Le Mans 26%, draw 39%, Toulouse 35%HT · 0–0 · Le Mans 26%, draw 40%, Toulouse 34%46' · 0–1 · Le Mans 9%, draw 22%, Toulouse 69%47' · 0–1 · Le Mans 9%, draw 22%, Toulouse 69%48' · 0–1 · Le Mans 8%, draw 22%, Toulouse 69%49' · 0–1 · Le Mans 8%, draw 22%, Toulouse 70%50' · 0–1 · Le Mans 8%, draw 22%, Toulouse 70%51' · 0–1 · Le Mans 8%, draw 22%, Toulouse 70%52' · 0–1 · Le Mans 8%, draw 22%, Toulouse 70%53' · 0–1 · Le Mans 7%, draw 22%, Toulouse 71%54' · 0–1 · Le Mans 7%, draw 22%, Toulouse 71%55' · 0–1 · Le Mans 7%, draw 22%, Toulouse 71%56' · 0–1 · Le Mans 7%, draw 22%, Toulouse 72%57' · 0–1 · Le Mans 6%, draw 21%, Toulouse 72%58' · 0–1 · Le Mans 6%, draw 21%, Toulouse 72%59' · 0–1 · Le Mans 6%, draw 21%, Toulouse 73%60' · 0–2 · Le Mans 1%, draw 4%, Toulouse 95%61' · 0–2 · Le Mans 1%, draw 4%, Toulouse 95%62' · 0–2 · Le Mans 1%, draw 4%, Toulouse 96%63' · 0–2 · Le Mans 1%, draw 4%, Toulouse 96%64' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 4%, Toulouse 96%65' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 3%, Toulouse 96%66' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 3%, Toulouse 96%67' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 3%, Toulouse 96%68' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 3%, Toulouse 97%69' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 3%, Toulouse 97%70' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 3%, Toulouse 97%71' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 3%, Toulouse 97%72' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 2%, Toulouse 97%73' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 2%, Toulouse 97%74' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 2%, Toulouse 98%75' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 2%, Toulouse 98%76' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%77' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%78' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%79' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%80' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 1%, Toulouse 99%81' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 1%, Toulouse 99%82' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 1%, Toulouse 99%83' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 1%, Toulouse 99%84' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 1%, Toulouse 99%85' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 1%, Toulouse 99%86' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 1%, Toulouse 99%87' · 0–2 · Le Mans 0%, draw 1%, Toulouse 99%88' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%89' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%90' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%90+1' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%90+2' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%90+3' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%90+4' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%90+5' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%90+6' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%90+7' · 0–3 · Le Mans 0%, draw 0%, Toulouse 100%

Last reading, 90+7': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Toulouse 42% to win: they did.

  1. 46'Toulouse:Jacen Russell-Rowe 2019 +27 assist Aron Dønnum 2039 +19
  2. 49'Toulouse:Jacen Russell-Rowe 2019 +27
  3. 59'Toulouse:Aron Dønnum 2039 +19
  4. 61'Le Mans:Lucas Calodat 1870 −5 for Yasser Larouci 1892 −12
  5. 61'Le Mans:Habib Diallo 1717 −3 for Dame Gueye 1666 −3
  6. 61'Le Mans:Bilal Brahimi 1773 −1 for Daouda Traore 1595 −8*
  7. 64'Toulouse:Alexis Vossah 1767 +7 for Aron Dønnum 2039 +19
  8. 69'Le Mans:Rayan Bamba 1789 −1 for Lucas Buades 1872 −21*
  9. 76'Toulouse:Julián Vignolo 1417 −1* for Jacen Russell-Rowe 2019 +27
  10. 77'Le Mans:Noa Boissé 1690 0 for Harold Voyer 1843 −12
  11. 85'Toulouse:Seny Koumbassa 1701 +2 for Rasmus Nicolaisen 2024 +20*
  12. 87'Toulouse:Casper Tengstedt 1974 +39 assist Cristian Casseres 2060 +26
  13. 90'Le Mans:Samuel Yohou 1815 −16
  14. 90+4'Le Mans:Djibril Sidibé 1884 −32*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-1-4-2Formations4-2-3-1
GN. Kocik1800−7
DD. Sidibé1884−32*
DS. Yohou1815−16
DH. Voyer1843−12
ML. Bretelle14960
ML. Buadés1872−21*
MD. Traoré1595−8*
MJ. Vercruysse14460
MY. Larouci1892−12
FD. Guèye1666−3
FL. Mafouta1616−4
CP. Videira1852−27
GG. Restes2068+9
DR. Messali1892+52
DM. McKenzie2076+24
DR. Nicolaisen2024+20*
DC. Tapé1596+36
MN. Sigur1876+19
MC. Cásseres2060+26
MT. Jørgensen1842+21
MC. Tengstedt1974+39
MA. Dønnum2039+19
FJ. Russell-Rowe2019+27
CJens Berthel Askou1887+35
Before kick-off: 29% · 28% · 42%(Le Mans · draw · Toulouse)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 0–3 had 4%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Le Mans €662K, Toulouse €5.0M.
  • Le Mans were without 1 expected starter: A. Bourabaa (1698).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Le Mans

14th in Ligue 1 · 6 pts from 6

  • 10 OctLParis Saint Germain 1727
  • 19 SepWLorient 1700
  • 13 SepDLens 1656
  • 5 SepDNice 1692
  • 30 AugLRennes 1729

Toulouse

15th in Ligue 1 · 6 pts from 6

  • 10 OctDMonaco 1837
  • 19 SepWLe Havre 1822
  • 12 SepDLorient 1788
  • 3 SepLLille 1845
  • 29 AugDStade Brestois 29 1786

Season outlook

From the Ligue 1 simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Le Mans6 /630.40%0%59%18th
Toulouse6 /634.70%<1%32%14th
Le Mans
Toulouse

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Ligue 1

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

L. Mafouta
L. Mafouta

Le Mans · +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1619

T. Jørgensen
T. Jørgensen

Toulouse · +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1821

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Patrick Videira

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Jens Berthel Askou

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Le Mans: balanced profile (how Patrick Videira plays) · Toulouse: balanced profile (how Jens Berthel Askou plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.