Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 9
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Stade Océane, Le Havre
Le Havre host Paris Saint Germain on Fri 30 Oct 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Le Havre 6%, draw 12%, Paris Saint Germain 82%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Le Havre €3.4M, Paris Saint Germain €56.8M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Ligue 1 matchday 9: 690 points.
- Draw chance 12%, below the Ligue 1 average of 25% this round.
- Ligue 1: M. Safonov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2457).
- Style contrast in possession (Ligue 1): Le Havre rank #18 of 18, Paris Saint Germain #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Le Havre goals first.
- 0–310%
- 0–210%
- 1–38%
- 0–48%
- 1–28%
- 1–46%
- Other scores50%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–3expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–3expected 5.5 pts
Team Elo: Le Havre 1798 · Paris Saint Germain 2488
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Le Havre · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1893
Paris Saint Germain · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2598
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Le Havre
18th in Ligue 1 · 2 pts from 7
- 18 OctLAuxerre Ligue 11818
- 10 OctLLille Ligue 11828
- 19 SepLToulouse Ligue 11818
- 12 SepDAngers Ligue 11826
- 5 SepLStade Brestois 29 Ligue 11875
Paris Saint Germain
2nd in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 17 OctWStrasbourg Ligue 12416
- 14 OctWManchester City UEFA Champions League2466
- 10 OctWLe Mans Ligue 12381
- 20 SepWMarseille Ligue 12464
- 13 SepWStade Brestois 29 Ligue 12476
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 2 /7 | 27.6 | 0% | 0% | 72% | 18th |
| Paris Saint Germain | 14 /7 | 80.9 | 98% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Le Havre: direct (how Didier Frédéric Thierry Digard plays) · Paris Saint Germain: possession-based · creative (how Luis Enrique plays)