Liga Pro · Championship Group - 7
LDU de Quito vs Aucas
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito
LDU de Quito host Aucas on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Liga Pro); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: LDU de Quito 66%, draw 21%, Aucas 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: LDU de Quito €1.4M, Aucas €389K.
- Draw chance 21%, below the Liga Pro average of 27% this round.
- Liga Pro: M. Weigandt is the highest-rated defender (2095).
- Style contrast in discipline (Liga Pro): LDU de Quito rank #13 of 16, Aucas #4.
- Aucas' expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. LDU de Quito goals first.
- 1–014%
- 2–013%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 3–08%
- 0–07%
- Other scores38%
Team Elo: LDU de Quito 1850 · Aucas 1554
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
LDU de Quito · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.8 (Good) · Elo 1881
Aucas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1537
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
LDU de Quito
5th in Liga Pro · 46 pts from 30
- 8 NovDBarcelona SC Ecuador Liga Pro1882
- 1 NovLIndependiente del Valle Ecuador Liga Pro1901
- 24 OctLMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1813
- 17 OctDAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1892
- 11 OctWBarcelona SC Ecuador Liga Pro1883
Aucas
4th in Liga Pro · 50 pts from 30
- 8 NovLIndependiente del Valle Ecuador Liga Pro1552
- 1 NovWUniversidad Catolica Ecuador Liga Pro1530
- 25 OctLBarcelona SC Ecuador Liga Pro1583
- 17 OctDLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1599
- 10 OctLIndependiente del Valle Ecuador Liga Pro1578
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDU de Quito | 54 /36 | 60.8 | 0% | 84% | 0% | 3rd |
| Aucas | 54 /36 | 57.7 | 0% | 34% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
LDU de Quito: balanced profile (how Gustavo Álvarez plays) · Aucas: balanced profile (how N. Araujo plays)