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Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 8

KV Mechelen 4–3 St. Truiden

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 17:15 UTC · Veoliastadion Achter De Kazerne, Mechelen

KV Mechelen crestKV MechelenTeam 1670
4–3
Full time
HT 3–1
St. Truiden crestSt. TruidenTeam 1831

Match story

KV Mechelen · draw · St. Truiden

Before kick-off: 28% · 28% · 44%

Live chances: KV Mechelen 98%, draw 2%, St. Truiden 0% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 28%, St. Truiden 44%2' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 28%, St. Truiden 44%3' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 29%, St. Truiden 44%4' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 29%, St. Truiden 43%5' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 29%, St. Truiden 43%6' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 29%, St. Truiden 43%7' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 29%, St. Truiden 43%8' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 29%, St. Truiden 43%9' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 29%, St. Truiden 43%10' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 30%, St. Truiden 43%11' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 30%, St. Truiden 43%12' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 30%, St. Truiden 42%13' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 30%, St. Truiden 42%15' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 30%, St. Truiden 42%16' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 31%, St. Truiden 42%18' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 28%, draw 31%, St. Truiden 42%19' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 27%, draw 31%, St. Truiden 41%20' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 27%, draw 31%, St. Truiden 41%21' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 27%, draw 32%, St. Truiden 41%22' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 27%, draw 32%, St. Truiden 41%23' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 27%, draw 32%, St. Truiden 41%24' · 0–0 · KV Mechelen 27%, draw 32%, St. Truiden 41%25' · 1–0 · KV Mechelen 59%, draw 25%, St. Truiden 17%26' · 1–0 · KV Mechelen 59%, draw 25%, St. Truiden 16%27' · 1–0 · KV Mechelen 59%, draw 25%, St. Truiden 16%28' · 1–0 · KV Mechelen 59%, draw 25%, St. Truiden 16%29' · 1–0 · KV Mechelen 59%, draw 25%, St. Truiden 16%30' · 1–0 · KV Mechelen 59%, draw 25%, St. Truiden 16%31' · 1–0 · KV Mechelen 60%, draw 25%, St. Truiden 15%32' · 1–0 · KV Mechelen 60%, draw 25%, St. Truiden 15%33' · 1–0 · KV Mechelen 60%, draw 25%, St. Truiden 15%34' · 1–0 · KV Mechelen 60%, draw 25%, St. Truiden 15%35' · 2–0 · KV Mechelen 88%, draw 9%, St. Truiden 3%36' · 2–0 · KV Mechelen 88%, draw 9%, St. Truiden 3%37' · 2–0 · KV Mechelen 88%, draw 9%, St. Truiden 3%38' · 2–0 · KV Mechelen 88%, draw 9%, St. Truiden 3%39' · 2–0 · KV Mechelen 88%, draw 9%, St. Truiden 3%40' · 3–0 · KV Mechelen 97%, draw 2%, St. Truiden 1%41' · 3–0 · KV Mechelen 97%, draw 2%, St. Truiden 1%43' · 3–0 · KV Mechelen 97%, draw 2%, St. Truiden 0%44' · 3–0 · KV Mechelen 98%, draw 2%, St. Truiden 0%45' · 3–1 · KV Mechelen 90%, draw 8%, St. Truiden 2%45+1' · 3–1 · KV Mechelen 90%, draw 8%, St. Truiden 2%45+2' · 3–1 · KV Mechelen 90%, draw 8%, St. Truiden 2%45+3' · 3–1 · KV Mechelen 90%, draw 8%, St. Truiden 2%45+4' · 3–1 · KV Mechelen 90%, draw 8%, St. Truiden 2%HT · 3–1 · KV Mechelen 90%, draw 8%, St. Truiden 2%46' · 3–1 · KV Mechelen 90%, draw 8%, St. Truiden 2%48' · 3–1 · KV Mechelen 91%, draw 7%, St. Truiden 2%49' · 3–1 · KV Mechelen 91%, draw 7%, St. Truiden 2%50' · 3–2 · KV Mechelen 65%, draw 25%, St. Truiden 10%52' · 3–2 · KV Mechelen 66%, draw 24%, St. Truiden 10%53' · 3–2 · KV Mechelen 66%, draw 24%, St. Truiden 9%55' · 3–2 · KV Mechelen 67%, draw 24%, St. Truiden 9%56' · 3–2 · KV Mechelen 68%, draw 24%, St. Truiden 8%57' · 3–2 · KV Mechelen 68%, draw 24%, St. Truiden 8%58' · 3–2 · KV Mechelen 69%, draw 24%, St. Truiden 8%59' · 3–2 · KV Mechelen 69%, draw 24%, St. Truiden 8%60' · 3–2 · KV Mechelen 69%, draw 23%, St. Truiden 7%61' · 3–2 · KV Mechelen 70%, draw 23%, St. Truiden 7%62' · 3–2 · KV Mechelen 70%, draw 23%, St. Truiden 7%63' · 4–2 · KV Mechelen 94%, draw 5%, St. Truiden 1%64' · 4–2 · KV Mechelen 95%, draw 5%, St. Truiden 1%65' · 4–2 · KV Mechelen 95%, draw 4%, St. Truiden 1%66' · 4–2 · KV Mechelen 95%, draw 4%, St. Truiden 1%67' · 4–2 · KV Mechelen 95%, draw 4%, St. Truiden 1%68' · 4–2 · KV Mechelen 96%, draw 4%, St. Truiden 1%69' · 4–2 · KV Mechelen 96%, draw 4%, St. Truiden 1%70' · 4–2 · KV Mechelen 96%, draw 4%, St. Truiden 0%71' · 4–2 · KV Mechelen 96%, draw 3%, St. Truiden 0%72' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 76%, draw 20%, St. Truiden 4%73' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 76%, draw 20%, St. Truiden 4%74' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 77%, draw 20%, St. Truiden 4%75' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 77%, draw 19%, St. Truiden 3%76' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 78%, draw 19%, St. Truiden 3%77' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 79%, draw 18%, St. Truiden 3%78' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 80%, draw 18%, St. Truiden 3%79' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 80%, draw 17%, St. Truiden 2%81' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 82%, draw 16%, St. Truiden 2%82' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 83%, draw 15%, St. Truiden 2%83' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 84%, draw 15%, St. Truiden 2%84' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 85%, draw 14%, St. Truiden 1%85' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 85%, draw 13%, St. Truiden 1%86' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 86%, draw 13%, St. Truiden 1%87' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 87%, draw 12%, St. Truiden 1%88' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 88%, draw 11%, St. Truiden 1%89' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 90%, draw 10%, St. Truiden 1%90' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 91%, draw 9%, St. Truiden 0%90+1' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 92%, draw 8%, St. Truiden 0%90+3' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 95%, draw 5%, St. Truiden 0%90+5' · 4–3 · KV Mechelen 98%, draw 2%, St. Truiden 0%

Last reading, 90+5': 98% · 2% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave St. Truiden 44% to win: KV Mechelen won.

  1. 5'St. Truiden:K. Takai 1877 −13*
  2. 24'KV Mechelen:K. Takai 1877 −13* (own goal)
  3. 34'KV Mechelen:S. Michez 1673 +57*
  4. 39'KV Mechelen:S. Taniguchi 1900 −22* (own goal)
  5. 42'St. Truiden:K. Matsuzawa 1713 −8*
  6. 44'St. Truiden:S. Bazdar 1737 0 assist R. Merlen 1843 −15*
  7. 46'St. Truiden:N. Ishiwatari 1717 −8* for K. Matsuzawa 1713 −8*
  8. 46'St. Truiden:N. Mbuku 1849 −9* for R. Araki 1912 −12*
  9. 49'St. Truiden:I. Sebaoui 1904 −31*
  10. 53'KV Mechelen:M. Decherf 1534 +21*
  11. 62'KV Mechelen:B. Raman 1677 +31* assist K. Corbanie 1781 +35*
  12. 63'KV Mechelen:C. Van Meirvenne 1479 +20* for B. Raman 1677 +31*
  13. 67'St. Truiden:F. Soelle 1372 −8* for S. Bazdar 1737 0
  14. 67'St. Truiden:S. Shinkawa 1531 −8* for R. Merlen 1843 −15*
  15. 71'St. Truiden:F. Soelle 1372 −8*
  16. 81'KV Mechelen:M. Lohunanu-Mbasi 1503 −4* for B. Boersma 1745 +36*
  17. 81'KV Mechelen:B. Antonio 1529 −5* for T. Koudou 1761 +7*
  18. 81'KV Mechelen:L. Marijnissen 1669 −2* for M. Eerdhuijzen 1867 +16*
  19. 81'KV Mechelen:D. Praet 1753 −10* for M. Decherf 1534 +21*
  20. 84'St. Truiden:N. Ishiwatari 1717 −8*
  21. 88'St. Truiden:S. Taniguchi 1900 −22*
  22. 90+5'KV Mechelen:F. Hammar 1799 +31*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations4-2-3-1
GLéo Kokubo1928−17*
DRobert-Jan Vanwesemael1959−19*
DShogo Taniguchi1900−22*
DKota Takai1877−13*
DTaiga Hata1893−15*
MRyan Merlen1843−15*
MAbdoulaye Sissako1939−40*
MKaito Matsuzawa1713−8*
MRyotaro Araki1912−12*
MIlias Sebaoui1904−31*
FSamed Baždar17370
CFrédéric De Meyer1629
Before kick-off: 28% · 28% · 44%(KV Mechelen · draw · St. Truiden)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 4–3 had <1%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: KV Mechelen €1.4M, St. Truiden €2.6M.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

KV Mechelen

18th in Pro League · 3 pts from 7

  • 19 SepDLommel United 1712
  • 11 SepLAnderlecht 1721
  • 5 SepLKVC Westerlo 1732
  • 29 AugDRAAL La Louvière 1733
  • 22 AugLCharleroi 1700

St. Truiden

12th in Pro League · 8 pts from 7

  • 20 SepLKVC Westerlo 1898
  • 12 SepLSK Beveren 1878
  • 5 SepWRAAL La Louvière 1886
  • 2 SepLUnion St. Gilloise 1806
  • 30 AugWAntwerp 1907

Season outlook

From the Jupiler Pro League simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
KV Mechelen3 /731.90%0%49%17th
St. Truiden8 /745.00%3%2%8th
KV Mechelen
St. Truiden

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Jupiler Pro League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

M. van Brederode
M. van Brederode

KV Mechelen · +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1752

R. Merlen
R. Merlen

St. Truiden · +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1858

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Frederic Vanderbiest

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Frédéric De Meyer

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

KV Mechelen: balanced profile (how Frederic Vanderbiest plays) · St. Truiden: possession-based (how Frédéric De Meyer plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.