Premier League · Regular Season - 11
Krylia Sovetov 1–2 Fakel
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 11:00 UTC · Solidarnost Samara Arena, Samara
Krylia SovetovTeam 1669FakelTeam 1498We gave Krylia Sovetov 57% to win: Fakel won.
- 17'Clayton Sampaio Pereira 1774 +36 assist Ilnur Alshin 1576 +95Fakel:Clayton Sampaio Pereira 1774 +36 assist Ilnur Alshin 1576 +95
- Martin Kramarič 1692 −10 assist Kirill Pechenin 1772 −1425'Krylia Sovetov:Martin Kramarič 1692 −10 assist Kirill Pechenin 1772 −14
- 45'Ravil Netfullin 1521 +12 for Vyacheslav Yakimov 1562 +14Fakel:Ravil Netfullin 1521 +12 for Vyacheslav Yakimov 1562 +14
- 45+2'Vyacheslav Yakimov 1562 +14Fakel:Vyacheslav Yakimov 1562 +14
- 47'Albert Gabaraev 1582 +30Fakel:Albert Gabaraev 1582 +30
- Ilzat Akhmetov 1630 −1 for Amar Rahmanović 1658 −560'Krylia Sovetov:Ilzat Akhmetov 1630 −1 for Amar Rahmanović 1658 −5
- Vitaliy Shitov 1453 0 for Martin Kramarič 1692 −1060'Krylia Sovetov:Vitaliy Shitov 1453 0 for Martin Kramarič 1692 −10
- Maksim Vityugov 1687 −462'Krylia Sovetov:Maksim Vityugov 1687 −4
- 67'Matvey Bardachev 1670 +59* assist Ilnur Alshin 1576 +95Fakel:Matvey Bardachev 1670 +59* assist Ilnur Alshin 1576 +95
- 69'Axel Gnapi 1467 +2* for Aleksandr Koksharov 1371 +41Fakel:Axel Gnapi 1467 +2* for Aleksandr Koksharov 1371 +41
- 69'Maksim Turishchev 1460 +10 for Belajdi Pusi 1573 +23Fakel:Maksim Turishchev 1460 +10 for Belajdi Pusi 1573 +23
- Mihajlo Banjac 1656 −8* for Maksim Vityugov 1687 −474'Krylia Sovetov:Mihajlo Banjac 1656 −8* for Maksim Vityugov 1687 −4
- Sergey Bozhin 1714 −1085'Krylia Sovetov:Sergey Bozhin 1714 −10
- Dominik Oroz 1683 −8* for Nikolay Rasskazov 1755 −1286'Krylia Sovetov:Dominik Oroz 1683 −8* for Nikolay Rasskazov 1755 −12
- Kirill Stolbov 1470 0 for Kirill Pechenin 1772 −1486'Krylia Sovetov:Kirill Stolbov 1470 0 for Kirill Pechenin 1772 −14
- 87'Anton Kovalev 1476 +1 for Darko Todorovic 1602 +26Fakel:Anton Kovalev 1476 +1 for Darko Todorovic 1602 +26
- 90+4'Ilnur Alshin 1576 +95Fakel:Ilnur Alshin 1576 +95
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 57% · 26% · 17%(Krylia Sovetov · draw · Fakel)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 1–2 had 5%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Krylia Sovetov €944K, Fakel €531K.
- Style contrast in discipline (Premier Liga): Krylia Sovetov ranked #4 of 15, Fakel #15.
- Fakel's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
- Krylia Sovetov were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Krylia Sovetov
10th in Premier Liga · 12 pts from 10
- 10 OctDSpartak Moscow Russia Premier League1702
- 16 SepDLokomotiv Russia Premier League1680
- 11 SepWRodina Moskva Russia Premier League1692
- 5 SepDFC Krasnodar Russia Premier League1691
- 29 AugDAkhmat Russia Premier League1712
Fakel
16th in Premier Liga · 3 pts from 10
- 10 OctLLokomotiv Russia Premier League1545
- 16 SepLSpartak Moscow Russia Premier League1541
- 12 SepDBaltika Russia Premier League1532
- 5 SepLFC Rostov Russia Premier League1565
- 29 AugLZenit Russia Premier League1563
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krylia Sovetov | 12 /10 | 35.6 | 0% | <1% | 10% | 9th |
| Fakel | 3 /10 | 19.6 | 0% | 0% | 96% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Krylia Sovetov · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1817
Fakel · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1482
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Krylia Sovetov: balanced profile (how Sergey Bulatov plays) · Fakel: direct · low-volume (how Oleg Vasilenko plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.