Süper Lig · Regular Season - 12
Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Izmit
Kocaelispor host Fenerbahçe on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Süper Lig); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Kocaelispor 19%, draw 25%, Fenerbahçe 56%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Kocaelispor €1.5M, Fenerbahçe €7.4M.
- Süper Lig: Ederson is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2363).
- Fenerbahçe's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Kocaelispor goals first.
- 1–112%
- 0–111%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–07%
- 0–36%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Kocaelispor 1892 · Fenerbahçe 2246
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kocaelispor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1928
Fenerbahçe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.5 (Good) · Elo 2336
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kocaelispor
7th in Süper Lig · 19 pts from 11
- 7 NovWEyüpspor Turkey Super Lig1888
- 31 OctDRizespor Turkey Super Lig1873
- 23 OctWAlanyaspor Turkey Super Lig1834
- 18 OctLGöztepe Turkey Super Lig1829
- 11 OctLBeşiktaş Turkey Super Lig1796
Fenerbahçe
6th in Süper Lig · 19 pts from 11
- 8 NovWÇorum FK Turkey Super Lig2198
- 4 NovWLiverpool UEFA Champions League2177
- 31 OctLGöztepe Turkey Super Lig2192
- 26 OctLGalatasaray Turkey Super Lig2228
- 20 OctDSlavia Praha UEFA Champions League2280
Season outlook
From the Süper Lig simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | 19 /11 | 48.1 | 0% | 2% | <1% | 8th |
| Fenerbahçe | 19 /11 | 66.5 | 7% | 91% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Kocaelispor: balanced profile (how Selçuk İnan plays) · Fenerbahçe: shot-heavy · creative (how Emre Belözoğlu plays)