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Premiership · Regular Season - 9

Kilmarnock 3–2 Motherwell

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock crestKilmarnockTeam 1568
3–2
Full time
HT 1–1
Motherwell crestMotherwellTeam 1658

Match story

Kilmarnock · draw · Motherwell

Before kick-off: 36% · 30% · 35%

Live chances: Kilmarnock 98%, draw 2%, Motherwell 0% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · Kilmarnock 36%, draw 30%, Motherwell 35%2' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 61%, draw 23%, Motherwell 15%3' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 62%, draw 23%, Motherwell 15%4' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 62%, draw 23%, Motherwell 15%5' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 62%, draw 23%, Motherwell 15%6' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 62%, draw 23%, Motherwell 15%7' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 62%, draw 23%, Motherwell 15%8' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 62%, draw 23%, Motherwell 15%9' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 62%, draw 23%, Motherwell 15%10' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 62%, draw 23%, Motherwell 15%11' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 62%, draw 23%, Motherwell 15%12' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 62%, draw 23%, Motherwell 14%13' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 62%, draw 23%, Motherwell 14%14' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 62%, draw 23%, Motherwell 14%15' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 63%, draw 23%, Motherwell 14%16' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 63%, draw 23%, Motherwell 14%17' · 1–0 · Kilmarnock 63%, draw 23%, Motherwell 14%18' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 35%, draw 32%, Motherwell 34%19' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 34%, draw 32%, Motherwell 34%20' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 34%, draw 32%, Motherwell 33%21' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 34%, draw 32%, Motherwell 33%22' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 34%, draw 33%, Motherwell 33%23' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 34%, draw 33%, Motherwell 33%24' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 34%, draw 33%, Motherwell 33%25' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 34%, draw 33%, Motherwell 33%26' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 34%, draw 33%, Motherwell 33%27' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 34%, draw 33%, Motherwell 33%28' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 34%, draw 34%, Motherwell 33%29' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 34%, draw 34%, Motherwell 33%30' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 33%, draw 34%, Motherwell 33%31' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 33%, draw 34%, Motherwell 32%32' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 33%, draw 34%, Motherwell 32%33' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 33%, draw 35%, Motherwell 32%34' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 33%, draw 35%, Motherwell 32%35' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 33%, draw 35%, Motherwell 32%36' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 33%, draw 35%, Motherwell 32%37' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 33%, draw 36%, Motherwell 32%38' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 32%, draw 36%, Motherwell 32%39' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 32%, draw 36%, Motherwell 32%40' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 32%, draw 36%, Motherwell 31%41' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 32%, draw 37%, Motherwell 31%42' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 32%, draw 37%, Motherwell 31%43' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 32%, draw 37%, Motherwell 31%44' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 32%, draw 38%, Motherwell 31%45' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 31%, draw 38%, Motherwell 31%45+1' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 31%, draw 38%, Motherwell 31%45+2' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 31%, draw 39%, Motherwell 30%45+3' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 31%, draw 39%, Motherwell 30%45+4' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 31%, draw 39%, Motherwell 30%45+5' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 31%, draw 39%, Motherwell 30%45+6' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 31%, draw 39%, Motherwell 30%45+7' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 31%, draw 39%, Motherwell 30%HT · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 31%, draw 39%, Motherwell 30%46' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 31%, draw 39%, Motherwell 30%47' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 31%, draw 40%, Motherwell 30%48' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 30%, draw 40%, Motherwell 30%49' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 30%, draw 40%, Motherwell 29%50' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 30%, draw 41%, Motherwell 29%51' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 30%, draw 41%, Motherwell 29%52' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 29%, draw 42%, Motherwell 29%53' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 29%, draw 42%, Motherwell 29%54' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 17%, draw 41%, Motherwell 42%55' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 17%, draw 41%, Motherwell 42%56' · 1–1 · Kilmarnock 28%, draw 44%, Motherwell 28%57' · 1–2 · Kilmarnock 9%, draw 25%, Motherwell 66%58' · 1–2 · Kilmarnock 9%, draw 25%, Motherwell 66%59' · 1–2 · Kilmarnock 9%, draw 25%, Motherwell 67%60' · 2–2 · Kilmarnock 27%, draw 47%, Motherwell 26%61' · 2–2 · Kilmarnock 27%, draw 47%, Motherwell 26%62' · 2–2 · Kilmarnock 26%, draw 48%, Motherwell 26%63' · 2–2 · Kilmarnock 26%, draw 49%, Motherwell 25%64' · 2–2 · Kilmarnock 26%, draw 49%, Motherwell 25%65' · 2–2 · Kilmarnock 25%, draw 50%, Motherwell 25%66' · 2–2 · Kilmarnock 25%, draw 51%, Motherwell 24%67' · 2–2 · Kilmarnock 24%, draw 52%, Motherwell 24%68' · 2–2 · Kilmarnock 24%, draw 52%, Motherwell 24%69' · 2–2 · Kilmarnock 24%, draw 53%, Motherwell 23%70' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 76%, draw 20%, Motherwell 4%71' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 76%, draw 20%, Motherwell 4%72' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 77%, draw 19%, Motherwell 4%73' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 77%, draw 19%, Motherwell 4%74' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 78%, draw 19%, Motherwell 3%75' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 78%, draw 18%, Motherwell 3%76' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 79%, draw 18%, Motherwell 3%77' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 80%, draw 18%, Motherwell 3%78' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 80%, draw 17%, Motherwell 3%79' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 81%, draw 17%, Motherwell 2%80' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 82%, draw 16%, Motherwell 2%81' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 82%, draw 16%, Motherwell 2%82' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 83%, draw 15%, Motherwell 2%83' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 84%, draw 14%, Motherwell 2%84' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 85%, draw 14%, Motherwell 1%85' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 86%, draw 13%, Motherwell 1%86' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 87%, draw 12%, Motherwell 1%87' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 88%, draw 12%, Motherwell 1%88' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 89%, draw 11%, Motherwell 1%89' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 90%, draw 10%, Motherwell 1%90' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 91%, draw 9%, Motherwell 0%90+1' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 92%, draw 8%, Motherwell 0%90+2' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 93%, draw 6%, Motherwell 0%90+3' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 95%, draw 5%, Motherwell 0%90+4' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 96%, draw 4%, Motherwell 0%90+5' · 3–2 · Kilmarnock 98%, draw 2%, Motherwell 0%

Last reading, 90+5': 98% · 2% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Kilmarnock 36% to win: they did.

  1. 2'Kilmarnock:Greg Kiltie 1668 +38
  2. 17'Motherwell:Alex·Lowry 1684 −5
  3. 33'Kilmarnock:Jamie Brandon 1522 +16 for Michael-John Kamson-Kamara 1554 +9
  4. 35'Kilmarnock:Aaron Tshibola 1601 +9 for Bailey Rice 1605 0*
  5. 55'Kilmarnock:George Stanger 1664 +16
  6. 56'Motherwell:Sebastian Palmer-Houlden 1576 0
  7. 58'Kilmarnock:Tyreece John-Jules 1654 +43 assist Jamie Brandon 1522 +16
  8. 68'Motherwell:Jake Max Girdwood-Reich 1774 −4 for Martin Moormann 1676 −4
  9. 68'Motherwell:Jardell Kanga 1538 0 for Alex·Lowry 1684 −5
  10. 68'Motherwell:Eythor Bjørgolfsson 1308 0 for Sebastian Palmer-Houlden 1576 0
  11. 69'Kilmarnock:Greg Kiltie 1668 +38 assist Jamie Brandon 1522 +16
  12. 75'Motherwell:Dylan Levitt 1777 −3 for Lukas Fadinger 1740 −10
  13. 77'Kilmarnock:Djenairo Daniels 1325 +6 for Tyreece John-Jules 1654 +43
  14. 77'Kilmarnock:Ieuan Gwyn Owen 1257 +10* for Greg Kiltie 1668 +38
  15. 81'Motherwell:Johnny Koutroumbis 1703 −9* for Tom Sparrow 1740 −11

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GC. Ferrie1467+102
DMichael-John Kamson-Kamara1554+9
DC. McCarthy1687+15
DG. Stanger1664+16
DM. Schjønning-Larsen1735+11
MB. Rice16050*
MT. Lowery1677+14
ME. Ring1710+13
MT. John-Jules1654+43
MG. Kiltie1668+38
FJ. Hugill1641+18
CN. McCann1505+58
GA. Paulsen1714−9
DT. Sparrow1740−11
DS. O'Donnell1639−8
DM. Moormann1676−4
DM. Emmanuel1764−15
ML. Fadinger1740−10
MJ. Hodge1653−3
MTawanda Jethro Maswanhise1743−12
MA. Lowry1684−5
MI. Said1753−13
FS. Palmer-Houlden15760
CAlfred Johansson1677−11
Before kick-off: 36% · 30% · 35%(Kilmarnock · draw · Motherwell)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 3–2 had 2%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Kilmarnock €363K, Motherwell €621K.
  • Home advantage made Kilmarnock the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.
  • Style contrast in discipline (Premiership): Kilmarnock ranked #12 of 12, Motherwell #3.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Kilmarnock

12th in Premiership · 5 pts from 8

  • 10 OctLRangers 1627
  • 19 SepDHeart Of Midlothian 1618
  • 15 SepWHibernian 1609
  • 5 SepDAberdeen 1574
  • 2 SepLST Mirren 1629

Motherwell

9th in Premiership · 8 pts from 8

  • 11 OctLCeltic 1698
  • 19 SepLDundee 1741
  • 15 SepLAberdeen 1741
  • 5 SepLRangers 1773
  • 2 SepWDundee Utd 1706

Season outlook

From the Premiership simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Kilmarnock5 /833.30%1%66%12th
Motherwell8 /841.90%18%15%6th
Kilmarnock
Motherwell

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Premiership

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

G. Stanger
G. Stanger

Kilmarnock · +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1647

A. Paulsen
A. Paulsen

Motherwell · +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1723

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Neill McCann

Coach DNA: –

Alfred Johansson

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Kilmarnock: direct (how Neill McCann plays) · Motherwell: balanced profile (how Alfred Johansson plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.