Premiership · Regular Season - 14
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Rugby Park, Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock host Aberdeen on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Premiership); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Kilmarnock 37%, draw 29%, Aberdeen 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Kilmarnock €425K, Aberdeen €546K.
- Home advantage makes Kilmarnock the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Premiership): Kilmarnock rank #9 of 12, Aberdeen #2.
- Kilmarnock's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Kilmarnock goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- 0–07%
- Other scores47%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.6 pts
Team Elo: Kilmarnock 1602 · Aberdeen 1686
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kilmarnock · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1623
Aberdeen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1698
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kilmarnock
12th in Premiership · 9 pts from 13
- 8 NovLCeltic Scotland Premiership1585
- 31 OctDST Johnstone Scotland Premiership1599
- 28 OctLDundee Scotland Premiership1637
- 24 OctLFalkirk Scotland Premiership1631
- 17 OctWMotherwell Scotland Premiership1611
Aberdeen
11th in Premiership · 11 pts from 12
- 7 NovLHibernian Scotland Premiership1730
- 28 OctLFalkirk Scotland Premiership1699
- 24 OctLDundee Utd Scotland Premiership1714
- 17 OctWST Mirren Scotland Premiership1730
- 11 OctLST Johnstone Scotland Premiership1701
Season outlook
From the Premiership simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 9 /13 | 30.5 | 0% | 1% | 84% | 12th |
| Aberdeen | 11 /12 | 37.2 | 0% | 5% | 40% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Kilmarnock: direct (how Neill McCann plays) · Aberdeen: balanced profile (how Stephen Robinson plays)