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Süper Lig · Regular Season - 8

Kasımpaşa 4–1 Samsunspor

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 10:30 UTC · Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, Istanbul

Kasımpaşa crestKasımpaşaTeam 1813
4–1
Full time
HT 2–1
Samsunspor crestSamsunsporTeam 1801

Match story

Kasımpaşa · draw · Samsunspor

Before kick-off: 44% · 28% · 28%

Live chances: Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0% at 90+3'1' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 44%, draw 28%, Samsunspor 28%2' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 44%, draw 28%, Samsunspor 28%3' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 44%, draw 28%, Samsunspor 28%4' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 44%, draw 29%, Samsunspor 28%5' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 44%, draw 29%, Samsunspor 28%6' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 44%, draw 29%, Samsunspor 28%7' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 44%, draw 29%, Samsunspor 28%8' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 43%, draw 29%, Samsunspor 28%9' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 43%, draw 29%, Samsunspor 28%10' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 43%, draw 29%, Samsunspor 28%11' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 43%, draw 29%, Samsunspor 28%12' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 43%, draw 29%, Samsunspor 28%13' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 43%, draw 30%, Samsunspor 28%14' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 43%, draw 30%, Samsunspor 28%15' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 43%, draw 30%, Samsunspor 28%16' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 42%, draw 30%, Samsunspor 28%17' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 42%, draw 30%, Samsunspor 27%18' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 42%, draw 30%, Samsunspor 27%19' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 42%, draw 31%, Samsunspor 27%20' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 42%, draw 31%, Samsunspor 27%21' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 42%, draw 31%, Samsunspor 27%22' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 42%, draw 31%, Samsunspor 27%23' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 41%, draw 31%, Samsunspor 27%24' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 41%, draw 31%, Samsunspor 27%25' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 41%, draw 32%, Samsunspor 27%26' · 0–0 · Kasımpaşa 41%, draw 32%, Samsunspor 27%27' · 1–0 · Kasımpaşa 70%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 10%28' · 1–0 · Kasımpaşa 70%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 10%29' · 1–0 · Kasımpaşa 70%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 10%30' · 1–0 · Kasımpaşa 70%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 9%31' · 2–0 · Kasımpaşa 91%, draw 7%, Samsunspor 2%32' · 2–0 · Kasımpaşa 91%, draw 7%, Samsunspor 2%33' · 2–0 · Kasımpaşa 91%, draw 7%, Samsunspor 2%34' · 2–0 · Kasımpaşa 92%, draw 7%, Samsunspor 2%35' · 2–0 · Kasımpaşa 92%, draw 7%, Samsunspor 2%36' · 2–0 · Kasımpaşa 92%, draw 7%, Samsunspor 2%37' · 2–0 · Kasımpaşa 92%, draw 6%, Samsunspor 2%38' · 2–0 · Kasımpaşa 92%, draw 6%, Samsunspor 2%39' · 2–0 · Kasımpaşa 92%, draw 6%, Samsunspor 2%40' · 2–0 · Kasımpaşa 92%, draw 6%, Samsunspor 2%41' · 2–0 · Kasımpaşa 92%, draw 6%, Samsunspor 2%43' · 2–0 · Kasımpaşa 92%, draw 6%, Samsunspor 1%44' · 2–0 · Kasımpaşa 93%, draw 6%, Samsunspor 1%45' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 72%, draw 21%, Samsunspor 8%45+1' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 72%, draw 21%, Samsunspor 8%45+2' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 72%, draw 21%, Samsunspor 8%45+3' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 72%, draw 21%, Samsunspor 8%45+4' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 72%, draw 21%, Samsunspor 7%HT · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 72%, draw 21%, Samsunspor 7%46' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 72%, draw 21%, Samsunspor 7%47' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 72%, draw 21%, Samsunspor 7%48' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 72%, draw 21%, Samsunspor 7%49' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 72%, draw 21%, Samsunspor 7%50' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 73%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 7%51' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 73%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 7%52' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 73%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 7%53' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 73%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 6%54' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 73%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 6%55' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 74%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 6%56' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 74%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 6%57' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 74%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 6%58' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 75%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 6%59' · 2–2 · Kasımpaşa 32%, draw 44%, Samsunspor 24%60' · 2–2 · Kasımpaşa 32%, draw 45%, Samsunspor 23%61' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 75%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 5%62' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 76%, draw 20%, Samsunspor 5%63' · 2–1 · Kasımpaşa 76%, draw 19%, Samsunspor 5%64' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 96%, draw 4%, Samsunspor 1%65' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 96%, draw 3%, Samsunspor 0%66' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 96%, draw 3%, Samsunspor 0%67' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 96%, draw 3%, Samsunspor 0%68' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 97%, draw 3%, Samsunspor 0%69' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 97%, draw 3%, Samsunspor 0%70' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 97%, draw 3%, Samsunspor 0%71' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 97%, draw 3%, Samsunspor 0%72' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 97%, draw 3%, Samsunspor 0%73' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 97%, draw 2%, Samsunspor 0%74' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 97%, draw 2%, Samsunspor 0%75' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 98%, draw 2%, Samsunspor 0%76' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 98%, draw 2%, Samsunspor 0%77' · 3–1 · Kasımpaşa 98%, draw 2%, Samsunspor 0%78' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%79' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%80' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%81' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%82' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%83' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%84' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%85' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%86' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%87' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%88' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%89' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%90' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%90+1' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%90+2' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%90+3' · 4–1 · Kasımpaşa 100%, draw 0%, Samsunspor 0%

Last reading, 90+3': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Kasımpaşa 44% to win: they did.

  1. 26'Kasımpaşa:C. Winck 1990 +26 assist A. Kol 1677 +76
  2. 31'Kasımpaşa:A. Arous 1796 +54* assist A. Benedyczak 2027 +22
  3. 45'Samsunspor:T. Coulibaly 1889 −9
  4. 46'Samsunspor:A. Sousa 1760 0 for E. Kilinc 1910 −6
  5. 51'Kasımpaşa:E. Belozoglu –
  6. 55'Samsunspor:A. Sousa 1760 0
  7. 64'Kasımpaşa:A. Arous 1796 +54* assist J. Rak-Sakyi 1935 +37
  8. 70'Samsunspor:S. Erakovic 2037 −4 for Y. E. Cift 1904 −3
  9. 70'Samsunspor:A. Sekongo 1672 0 for O. Ohlenschlaeger 1615 0
  10. 78'Kasımpaşa:A. Benedyczak 2027 +22 assist K. Demirbay 1927 +31
  11. 79'Kasımpaşa:E. Mendes 1604 +99
  12. 82'Kasımpaşa:T. Diarra 1751 +2 for A. Kol 1677 +76
  13. 82'Kasımpaşa:G. Yalcin 1843 +1 for A. Benedyczak 2027 +22
  14. 83'Kasımpaşa:H. Hajradinovic 1858 −3 for K. Demirbay 1927 +31
  15. 86'Samsunspor:S. Jarju 1696 −8* for T. Coulibaly 1889 −9
  16. 86'Samsunspor:E. Tavsan 1917 −1 for Y. Kayan 1933 −8
  17. 86'Kasımpaşa:M. Rafferty 1573 −5* for J. Rak-Sakyi 1935 +37
  18. 86'Kasımpaşa:K. Mouanga 1854 +1 for A. Karapo 1818 +56
  19. 89'Samsunspor:E. Watt 1758 0

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GOkan Kocuk1977−12
DJosafat Mendes1959−10
DYunus Emre Çift1904−3
DGabriele Guarino16790
DLogi Tomasson2004−14
MOskar Øhlenschlaeger16150
MElliot Watt17580
MTanguy Coulibaly1889−9
MYalçın Kayan1933−8
MEmre Kılınç1910−6
FMohamed Bayo1813−1
CThorsten Fink1973
Before kick-off: 44% · 28% · 28%(Kasımpaşa · draw · Samsunspor)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 4–1 had 2%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Kasımpaşa €1.4M, Samsunspor €1.7M.
  • Home advantage made Kasımpaşa the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Kasımpaşa

10th in Süper Lig · 10 pts from 7

  • 9 OctLGalatasaray 1847
  • 18 SepDKonyaspor 1792
  • 13 SepWGençlerbirliği S.K. 1765
  • 6 SepDAmed 1825
  • 30 AugDBaşakşehir 1808

Samsunspor

17th in Süper Lig · 4 pts from 7

  • 10 OctLTrabzonspor 1879
  • 20 SepLErzurumspor FK 1887
  • 12 SepLÇorum FK 1929
  • 6 SepLKocaelispor 1892
  • 30 AugLFenerbahçe 1928

Season outlook

From the Süper Lig simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Kasımpaşa10 /741.70%<1%11%10th
Samsunspor4 /739.10%<1%20%13th
Kasımpaşa
Samsunspor

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Süper Lig

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

A. Benedyczak
A. Benedyczak

Kasımpaşa · +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2005

O. Øhlenschlæger
O. Øhlenschlæger

Samsunspor · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1615

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Emre Belözoğlu

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Thorsten Fink

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Kasımpaşa: balanced profile (how Emre Belözoğlu plays) · Samsunspor: balanced profile (how Thorsten Fink plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.