1. Division · Regular Season - 5
Karmiotissa 0–3 Omonia Nicosia
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Paphos
KarmiotissaTeam 1385Omonia NicosiaTeam 1864We gave Omonia Nicosia 73% to win: they did.
Before kick-off (provisional): 10% · 17% · 73%(Karmiotissa · draw · Omonia Nicosia)
Our most likely score was 0–2 (11%); the result 0–3 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Karmiotissa €239K, Omonia Nicosia €1.5M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of 1. Division matchday 5: 479 points.
- Draw chance was 17%, below the 1. Division average of 24% this round.
- 1. Division: Ľ. Šatka was the highest-rated defender (2058).
- Omonia Nicosia were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Karmiotissa
12th in 1. Division · 3 pts from 4
- 20 SepDAris Cypriot First Division1354
- 12 SepDOmonia Aradippou Cypriot First Division1336
- 4 SepDOmonia 29is Maiou Cypriot First Division1371
- 30 AugLPafos Cypriot First Division1350
- 11 MayLAEL Cypriot First Division1431
Omonia Nicosia
3rd in 1. Division · 8 pts from 4
- 20 SepWKrasava Ypsonas Cypriot First Division1883
- 16 SepWCelta Vigo UEFA Europa League1860
- 12 SepDApollon Limassol Cypriot First Division1859
- 7 SepWAris Cypriot First Division1848
- 31 AugDOmonia Aradippou Cypriot First Division1789
Season outlook
From the 1. Division simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karmiotissa | 3 /4 | 22.1 | 0% | 0% | 66% | 14th |
| Omonia Nicosia | 8 /4 | 53.6 | 56% | 96% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Karmiotissa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1606
Omonia Nicosia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Good) · Elo 2058
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile