Premyer Liqa · Regular Season - 12
Kapaz vs Qarabag
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Ganja City Stadium, Tovuz
Kapaz host Qarabag on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Premyer Liqa); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Kapaz 12%, draw 20%, Qarabag 68%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Kapaz €210K, Qarabag €1.0M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premyer Liqa matchday 12: 408 points.
- Rogério Santos, Ü. Abbasov, Benito, A. Fofana, M. Abuladze, D. Acquah, Ş. Seyidov, D. Domgjoni, N. Ələsgərov and K. Kalunga (Kapaz) have not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Kapaz goals first.
- 0–211%
- 0–110%
- 1–210%
- 1–19%
- 0–38%
- 1–37%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Kapaz 1384 · Qarabag 1792
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Qarabag · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1942
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kapaz
6th in Premyer Liqa · 17 pts from 10
- 2 MayWSumqayıt Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1414
- 5 AprLQabala Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1434
- 20 MarWQarabag Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1399
- 15 MarDTuran Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1380
- 9 MarDZira Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1402
Qarabag
4th in Premyer Liqa · 19 pts from 10
- 25 OctDSabah FA Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1777
- 11 OctWImisli FK Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1814
- 27 AugLTwente UEFA Conference League1768
- 20 AugWTwente UEFA Conference League1733
- 13 AugWDynamo Kyiv UEFA Conference League1728
Season outlook
From the Premyer Liqa simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kapaz | 17 /10 | 41.2 | 0% | 2% | 7% | 6th |
| Qarabag | 19 /10 | 68.7 | 47% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile