Super League 1 · Regular Season - 11
Kalamata vs AEK Athens FC
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium, Kalamata
Kalamata host AEK Athens FC on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Super League 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Kalamata 14%, draw 21%, AEK Athens FC 66%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Kalamata €552K, AEK Athens FC €5.1M.
- AEK Athens FC's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.6 over 180 days.
- All 11 of AEK Athens FC's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Kalamata goals first.
- 0–211%
- 0–110%
- 1–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–38%
- 1–37%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Kalamata 1670 · AEK Athens FC 2075
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kalamata · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1669
AEK Athens FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2053
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kalamata
8th in Super League 1 · 12 pts from 10
- 8 NovDAsteras Tripolis Greece Super League1642
- 2 NovDIraklis 1908 Greece Super League1715
- 25 OctLOlympiakos Piraeus Greece Super League1732
- 18 OctWOFI Greece Super League1661
- 12 OctWPAOK Greece Super League1559
AEK Athens FC
3rd in Super League 1 · 20 pts from 9
- 8 NovWLevadiakos Greece Super League2038
- 4 NovLReal Madrid UEFA Champions League2057
- 1 NovLPanathinaikos Greece Super League2119
- 24 OctWPanetolikos Greece Super League2043
- 20 OctLManchester City UEFA Champions League2074
Season outlook
From the Super League 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalamata | 12 /10 | 28.8 | 0% | <1% | 14% | 8th |
| AEK Athens FC | 20 /9 | 51.8 | 10% | 94% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile