Premier League · Regular Season - 28
Kairat Almaty 1–0 Zhetysu
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Almaty Central Stadium, Almaty
Kairat AlmatyTeam 1614ZhetysuTeam 1279- M. Gual 87'
We gave Kairat Almaty 69% to win: they did.
- 31'A. Baltabekov –Zhetysu:A. Baltabekov –
- A. Tuyakbaev – for L. Kurgin –46'Kairat Almaty:A. Tuyakbaev – for L. Kurgin –
- M. Abish – for G. Mendonsa –63'Kairat Almaty:M. Abish – for G. Mendonsa –
- 64'S. Abzalov – for N. Nurbol –Zhetysu:S. Abzalov – for N. Nurbol –
- O. Jukkola –76'Kairat Almaty:O. Jukkola –
- I. Bekbolat – for O. Jukkola –77'Kairat Almaty:I. Bekbolat – for O. Jukkola –
- 77'D. Kashken –Zhetysu:D. Kashken –
- M. Gual – assist A. Tuyakbaev –87'Kairat Almaty:M. Gual – assist A. Tuyakbaev –
- 90'D. Kashken –Zhetysu:D. Kashken –
- 90'D. Kashken –Zhetysu:D. Kashken –
- 90+6'Kairat Almaty:
Before kick-off (provisional): 69% · 19% · 12%(Kairat Almaty · draw · Zhetysu)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 1–0 had 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Kairat Almaty €521K, Zhetysu €126K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premier League matchday 28: 335 points.
- Draw chance was 19%, below the Premier League average of 26% this round.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kairat Almaty
2nd in Premier League · 57 pts from 25
- 17 SepLFC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League1619
- 13 SepLFK Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League1641
- 9 SepWZhenys Kazakhstan Premier League1627
- 5 SepWKaspiy Kazakhstan Premier League1589
- 31 AugWYelimay Semey Kazakhstan Premier League1617
Zhetysu
16th in Premier League · 22 pts from 26
- 18 SepLKaspiy Kazakhstan Premier League1244
- 12 SepLYelimay Semey Kazakhstan Premier League1293
- 5 SepWIrtysh Kazakhstan Premier League1292
- 29 AugLUlytau Kazakhstan Premier League1295
- 8 AugLOrdabasy Kazakhstan Premier League1296
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kairat Almaty | 57 /25 | 64.7 | 51% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Zhetysu | 22 /26 | 25.4 | 0% | 0% | 93% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kairat Almaty · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1629
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –