Serie B · Regular Season - 33
Juventude 2–2 São Bernardo
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Caxias Sul
JuventudeTeam 1734São BernardoTeam 1657- sam rodrigo 23'
- Raí da Silva Pessanha 69'
- Felipe Garcia 45+2' (pen)
- Lucas Fernandes 49'
We gave Juventude 53% to win: it ended in a draw.
- sam rodrigo 1806 −9 assist Raí da Silva Pessanha 1829 −723'Juventude:sam rodrigo 1806 −9 assist Raí da Silva Pessanha 1829 −7
- 31'Alex Alves 1741 −4São Bernardo:Alex Alves 1741 −4
- 35'Jemerson 1749 −1São Bernardo:Jemerson 1749 −1
- Manuel Castro 1661 −11* for Fabio lima 1637 −245'Juventude:Manuel Castro 1661 −11* for Fabio lima 1637 −2
- 45+2'Felipe Garcia 1497 +13 (pen.)São Bernardo:Felipe Garcia 1497 +13 (pen.)
- Maurício Nogueira Barbieri45+6'Juventude:Maurício Nogueira Barbieri
- Marcos Paulo Lima Batista Silva 1854 −246'Juventude:Marcos Paulo Lima Batista Silva 1854 −2
- 49'Lucas Fernandes 1613 +16 assist Felipe Garcia 1497 +13São Bernardo:Lucas Fernandes 1613 +16 assist Felipe Garcia 1497 +13
- Juan 1667 0 for Marcos Paulo Lima Batista Silva 1854 −261'Juventude:Juan 1667 0 for Marcos Paulo Lima Batista Silva 1854 −2
- Nathan·Santos de Araujo 1747 −8* for Raí Ramos 1599 −11*61'Juventude:Nathan·Santos de Araujo 1747 −8* for Raí Ramos 1599 −11*
- 63'Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva 1696 +5São Bernardo:Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva 1696 +5
- 65'Pedro Vitor Ferreira da Silva 1709 0 for Felipe Garcia 1497 +13São Bernardo:Pedro Vitor Ferreira da Silva 1709 0 for Felipe Garcia 1497 +13
- 65'Lucas Rian Santos Oliveira 1410 +3 for Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes 1776 +2São Bernardo:Lucas Rian Santos Oliveira 1410 +3 for Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes 1776 +2
- Raí da Silva Pessanha 1829 −7 assist Marcos Paulo 1823 −669'Juventude:Raí da Silva Pessanha 1829 −7 assist Marcos Paulo 1823 −6
- 76'Hyoran 1490 −11* for Lucas Fernandes 1613 +16São Bernardo:Hyoran 1490 −11* for Lucas Fernandes 1613 +16
- Alan Kardec 1262 −11 for Marcos Paulo 1823 −678'Juventude:Alan Kardec 1262 −11 for Marcos Paulo 1823 −6
- Luan Martins·Goncalves 1694 0 for Gabriel Pires 1753 −683'Juventude:Luan Martins·Goncalves 1694 0 for Gabriel Pires 1753 −6
- 86'Foguinho 1462 −6 for Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva 1696 +5São Bernardo:Foguinho 1462 −6 for Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva 1696 +5
- 86'Hugo Sanches Nogueira Ribeiro Magalhães 1314 −3 for Pará 1703 +3São Bernardo:Hugo Sanches Nogueira Ribeiro Magalhães 1314 −3 for Pará 1703 +3
- 90+3'Rodrigo Ferreira 1771 +1São Bernardo:Rodrigo Ferreira 1771 +1
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 53% · 26% · 21%(Juventude · draw · São Bernardo)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–2 had 5%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Juventude €684K, São Bernardo €420K.
- Serie B: Jandrei was the highest-rated goalkeeper (1867).
- All 11 of Juventude's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
- All 11 of São Bernardo's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Juventude
1st in Serie B · 59 pts from 32
- 7 OctWPonte Preta Brazil Serie B1751
- 2 OctWOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1745
- 28 SepWAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B1697
- 19 SepLSport Recife Brazil Serie B1704
- 13 SepLAthletic Club Brazil Serie B1772
São Bernardo
12th in Serie B · 45 pts from 32
- 6 OctLSport Recife Brazil Serie B1676
- 2 OctWCRB Brazil Serie B1674
- 25 SepDNovorizontino Brazil Serie B1686
- 19 SepWAtletico Goianiense Brazil Serie B1686
- 14 SepWAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B1683
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude | 59 /32 | 68.6 | 45% | 96% | 0% | 1st |
| São Bernardo | 45 /32 | 53.2 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Juventude · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.1 (Elite) · Elo 1836
São Bernardo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Good) · Elo 1764
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Juventude: direct (how Maurício Nogueira Barbieri plays) · São Bernardo: balanced profile (how Vinícius Bergantin plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.