Primera División · Clausura - 12
Juventud vs Penarol
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Parque Artigas, Las Piedras
Juventud host Penarol on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Juventud 32%, draw 29%, Penarol 39%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Juventud €382K, Penarol €733K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Juventud goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Juventud 1576 · Penarol 1701
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Juventud · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Elite) · Elo 1621
Penarol · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Good) · Elo 1642
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Juventud
9th in Primera División - Apertura · 40 pts from 33
- 17 OctLProgreso Uruguay Primera Division1576
- 11 OctWRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1568
- 4 OctDBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1564
- 27 SepDCerro Uruguay Primera Division1582
- 13 SepDDanubio Uruguay Primera Division1546
Penarol
1st in Primera División - Apertura · 63 pts from 33
- 18 OctLLiverpool Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1708
- 10 OctDProgreso Uruguay Primera Division1716
- 4 OctWRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1706
- 30 SepDAtletico Torque Uruguay Primera Division1724
- 26 SepWBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1704
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventud | 101 /70 | 102.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6th |
| Penarol | 142 /70 | 143.5 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile