Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 11
Jong Utrecht 1–2 Roda
Mon 19 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Utrecht
Jong UtrechtTeam 1611RodaTeam 1621We gave Jong Utrecht 40% to win: Roda won.
- Massien Ghaddari – assist Wessel Kooy –44'Jong Utrecht:Massien Ghaddari – assist Wessel Kooy –
- Massien Ghaddari –50'Jong Utrecht:Massien Ghaddari –
- 57'Dyon Dorenbosch – assist Cain Seedorf –Roda:Dyon Dorenbosch – assist Cain Seedorf –
- Driss Laaouina – for Ferdinand Pohl –65'Jong Utrecht:Driss Laaouina – for Ferdinand Pohl –
- Noa Malik Dundas – for Richie Omorowa –65'Jong Utrecht:Noa Malik Dundas – for Richie Omorowa –
- Bjorn Menzo – for Per Kloosterboer –65'Jong Utrecht:Bjorn Menzo – for Per Kloosterboer –
- 71'Bram Marsman – for Koen Jansen –Roda:Bram Marsman – for Koen Jansen –
- 71'X. van den Berg – for Guilherme Martinho Peixoto –Roda:X. van den Berg – for Guilherme Martinho Peixoto –
- tijn boggende den – for Jaygo van Ommeren –71'Jong Utrecht:tijn boggende den – for Jaygo van Ommeren –
- 77'Fynn Schenten – for Cain Seedorf –Roda:Fynn Schenten – for Cain Seedorf –
- 78'Jeremiah Mensah – for Mitchel Paulissen –Roda:Jeremiah Mensah – for Mitchel Paulissen –
- Noël Beulens – for Jamie Schuldes –82'Jong Utrecht:Noël Beulens – for Jamie Schuldes –
- 85'Bram Marsman –Roda:Bram Marsman –
- 88'Anthony van den Hurk – assist X. van den Berg –Roda:Anthony van den Hurk – assist X. van den Berg –
- 90'Luuk Verheij – for Joshua Nisbet –Roda:Luuk Verheij – for Joshua Nisbet –
Before kick-off (provisional): 40% · 29% · 31%(Jong Utrecht · draw · Roda)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–2 had 7%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Jong Utrecht €352K, Roda €349K.
- Home advantage made Jong Utrecht the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Jong Utrecht
20th in Eerste Divisie · 7 pts from 10
- 9 OctLDe Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie1645
- 18 SepLVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1649
- 14 SepWJong Ajax Netherlands Eerste Divisie1616
- 11 SepWNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1591
- 7 SepDFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1601
Roda
7th in Eerste Divisie · 16 pts from 10
- 9 OctDJong PSV U21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie1618
- 4 OctLVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1614
- 26 SepWWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1629
- 18 SepDJong Ajax Netherlands Eerste Divisie1674
- 12 SepWVitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie1640
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Utrecht | 7 /10 | 45.0 | 0% | 1% | 24% | 15th |
| Roda | 16 /10 | 54.5 | 1% | 13% | 2% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Jong Utrecht · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1613
Roda · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1716
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct · high-pressing
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Jong Utrecht: balanced profile (how Mark Otten plays) · Roda: balanced profile (how Rob Penders plays)