Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 12
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer
Jong AZ host Helmond Sport on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Jong AZ 56%, draw 25%, Helmond Sport 19%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Jong AZ €639K, Helmond Sport €279K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Eerste Divisie matchday 12: 186 points.
- Eerste Divisie: A. Natali is the highest-rated defender (1851).
- Style contrast in chance creation (Eerste Divisie): Jong AZ rank #3 of 20, Helmond Sport #18.
- Only 0 of Jong AZ's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Jong AZ goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.2 pts
Team Elo: Jong AZ 1704 · Helmond Sport 1518
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Jong AZ · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1754
Helmond Sport · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.2 (Average) · Elo 1591
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Jong AZ
11th in Eerste Divisie · 14 pts from 11
- 16 OctDVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1745
- 9 OctLDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1741
- 18 SepWFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1685
- 11 SepLHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1694
- 5 SepWDordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1689
Helmond Sport
17th in Eerste Divisie · 9 pts from 11
- 16 OctLNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1518
- 9 OctLFC OSS Netherlands Eerste Divisie1497
- 2 OctDHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1532
- 26 SepLMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1537
- 18 SepLDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1553
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ | 14 /11 | 56.6 | 1% | 22% | 1% | 5th |
| Helmond Sport | 9 /11 | 39.4 | 0% | <1% | 56% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Jong AZ: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Frank Peereboom plays) · Helmond Sport: balanced profile (how Frédéric Frans plays)