Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 10
Jong AZ 0–1 Den Bosch
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · AFAS Trainingscomplex, Alkmaar
Jong AZTeam 1721Den BoschTeam 1469We gave Jong AZ 62% to win: Den Bosch won.
Before kick-off (provisional): 62% · 22% · 16%(Jong AZ · draw · Den Bosch)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 0–1 had 4%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Jong AZ €664K, Den Bosch €309K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Eerste Divisie matchday 10: 252 points.
- Draw chance was 22%, below the Eerste Divisie average of 28% this round.
- Eerste Divisie: A. Natali was the highest-rated defender (1907).
- Style contrast in possession (Eerste Divisie): Jong AZ ranked #2 of 20, Den Bosch #17.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Jong AZ
10th in Eerste Divisie · 13 pts from 9
- 18 SepWFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1685
- 11 SepLHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1694
- 5 SepWDordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1689
- 31 AugWJong Utrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1649
- 28 AugLMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1652
Den Bosch
16th in Eerste Divisie · 8 pts from 9
- 3 OctDDordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1484
- 27 SepLDe Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie1456
- 18 SepWHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1470
- 13 SepLFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1467
- 28 AugLVitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie1518
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ | 13 /9 | 60.9 | 11% | 52% | <1% | 2nd |
| Den Bosch | 8 /9 | 38.3 | 0% | <1% | 69% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Jong AZ · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1824
Den Bosch · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1468
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Jong AZ: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Frank Peereboom plays) · Den Bosch: direct (how Bart Schreuder plays)