Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 14
Jong AZ vs Almere City FC
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer
Jong AZ host Almere City FC on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Jong AZ 37%, draw 29%, Almere City FC 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Jong AZ €691K, Almere City FC €580K.
- Home advantage makes Jong AZ the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Eerste Divisie: A. Natali is the highest-rated defender (1851).
- Style contrast in possession (Eerste Divisie): Jong AZ rank #2 of 20, Almere City FC #19.
- Only 0 of Jong AZ's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Jong AZ goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Jong AZ 1704 · Almere City FC 1760
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Jong AZ · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1756
Almere City FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1816
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Jong AZ
11th in Eerste Divisie · 14 pts from 11
- 16 OctDVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1745
- 9 OctLDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1741
- 18 SepWFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1685
- 11 SepLHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1694
- 5 SepWDordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1689
Almere City FC
2nd in Eerste Divisie · 22 pts from 11
- 17 OctLEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1772
- 9 OctWFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1770
- 3 OctWFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1761
- 25 SepLDordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1705
- 18 SepWHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1729
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ | 14 /11 | 56.7 | 2% | 22% | 1% | 6th |
| Almere City FC | 22 /11 | 68.4 | 33% | 84% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Jong AZ: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Frank Peereboom plays) · Almere City FC: direct (how Anoush Dastgir plays)