Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 10
Jong Ajax 0–3 VVV Venlo
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam
Jong AjaxTeam 1549VVV VenloTeam 1519We gave Jong Ajax 44% to win: VVV Venlo won.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 44% · 27% · 29%(Jong Ajax · draw · VVV Venlo)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–3 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Jong Ajax €452K, VVV Venlo €256K.
- Only 0 of VVV Venlo's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Jong Ajax
17th in Eerste Divisie · 8 pts from 9
- 18 SepDRoda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1601
- 14 SepLJong Utrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1534
- 11 SepLWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1639
- 4 SepWAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1584
- 31 AugDJong PSV U21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie1464
VVV Venlo
3rd in Eerste Divisie · 18 pts from 9
- 4 OctWRoda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1530
- 26 SepLFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1575
- 18 SepWJong Utrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1529
- 11 SepWFC OSS Netherlands Eerste Divisie1499
- 4 SepLHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1579
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax | 8 /9 | 49.1 | <1% | 4% | 14% | 12th |
| VVV Venlo | 18 /9 | 56.1 | 3% | 24% | 2% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Jong Ajax · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1615
VVV Venlo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1541
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Jong Ajax: dribble-heavy (how Carlos García Badías plays) · VVV Venlo: balanced profile (how Marinus Dijkhuizen plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.