Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 13
Jong Ajax vs Vitesse
Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Ouder-Amstel
Jong Ajax host Vitesse on Mon 2 Nov 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Jong Ajax 40%, draw 29%, Vitesse 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Jong Ajax €414K, Vitesse €345K.
- Home advantage makes Jong Ajax the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in discipline (Eerste Divisie): Jong Ajax rank #3 of 20, Vitesse #17.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Jong Ajax goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.4 pts
Team Elo: Jong Ajax 1610 · Vitesse 1622
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Jong Ajax · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1607
Vitesse · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1730
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Jong Ajax
18th in Eerste Divisie · 8 pts from 10
- 9 OctLVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1607
- 18 SepDRoda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1601
- 14 SepLJong Utrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1534
- 11 SepLWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1639
- 4 SepWAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1584
Vitesse
6th in Eerste Divisie · 17 pts from 11
- 16 OctWFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1584
- 9 OctLFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1589
- 3 OctDNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1638
- 26 SepLHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1637
- 19 SepWJong PSV U21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie1600
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax | 8 /10 | 46.5 | 0% | 1% | 19% | 14th |
| Vitesse | 17 /11 | 54.6 | 1% | 13% | 2% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Jong Ajax: dribble-heavy (how Carlos García Badías plays) · Vitesse: balanced profile (how Rüdiger Rehm plays)