Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 17
Jong Ajax vs Heracles
Fri 27 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Ouder-Amstel
Jong Ajax host Heracles on Fri 27 Nov 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Jong Ajax 38%, draw 29%, Heracles 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Jong Ajax €475K, Heracles €507K.
- Home advantage makes Jong Ajax the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in discipline (Eerste Divisie): Jong Ajax rank #2 of 20, Heracles #19.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Jong Ajax goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–28%
- 2–18%
- 1–27%
- 1–06%
- 0–15%
- Other scores53%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.2 pts
Team Elo: Jong Ajax 1660 · Heracles 1695
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Jong Ajax · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1705
Heracles · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1780
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Jong Ajax
14th in Eerste Divisie · 16 pts from 14
- 6 NovWFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1634
- 2 NovDVitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie1670
- 23 OctDFC OSS Netherlands Eerste Divisie1589
- 19 OctWDe Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie1581
- 9 OctLVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1600
Heracles
1st in Eerste Divisie · 35 pts from 14
- 6 NovWRoda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1750
- 2 NovWFC OSS Netherlands Eerste Divisie1742
- 29 OctLDe Treffers Netherlands KNVB Beker1550
- 23 OctDNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1745
- 18 OctWMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1633
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax | 16 /14 | 50.9 | 0% | 4% | 4% | 10th |
| Heracles | 35 /14 | 71.3 | 44% | 93% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Jong Ajax: dribble-heavy (how Carlos García plays) · Heracles: direct (how Vincent Heilmann plays)