Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 11
Jong Ajax 2–1 De Graafschap
Mon 19 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam
Jong AjaxTeam 1537De GraafschapTeam 1622- emre unuvar 43'
- Jano Monserrate 79'
- Donny Warmerdam 45'
We gave De Graafschap 35% to win: Jong Ajax won.
- Marvyn Muzungu 176014'Jong Ajax:Marvyn Muzungu 1760
- Ryan van de Pavert 162021'Jong Ajax:Ryan van de Pavert 1620
- emre unuvar 141343'Jong Ajax:emre unuvar 1413
- 45'Donny Warmerdam 1730 assist Mark Diemers 1867De Graafschap:Donny Warmerdam 1730 assist Mark Diemers 1867
- 60'Jannes Luca·Wieckhoff 1660 for Levi Schoppema 1704De Graafschap:Jannes Luca·Wieckhoff 1660 for Levi Schoppema 1704
- 60'Bjorn van Zijl 1603 for gabriele finocchiaro 1372De Graafschap:Bjorn van Zijl 1603 for gabriele finocchiaro 1372
- 60'Julian kania 1656 for Kyano Kwint 1505De Graafschap:Julian kania 1656 for Kyano Kwint 1505
- 72'Rowan Besselink 1738De Graafschap:Rowan Besselink 1738
- Anass Moumane 1361 for Leo Salazar 139972'Jong Ajax:Anass Moumane 1361 for Leo Salazar 1399
- 78'Nart Ahmeti-Grainca 1357 for Toivo Mero 1408De Graafschap:Nart Ahmeti-Grainca 1357 for Toivo Mero 1408
- Sinclair de Falco 1378 for Jahyendrow Amour 125578'Jong Ajax:Sinclair de Falco 1378 for Jahyendrow Amour 1255
- Levi Acheampong 1352 for Mohamed Jabou Abdalla 162478'Jong Ajax:Levi Acheampong 1352 for Mohamed Jabou Abdalla 1624
- Jano Monserrate 1659 assist Ryan van de Pavert 162079'Jong Ajax:Jano Monserrate 1659 assist Ryan van de Pavert 1620
- Mylo van der Lans 1551 for Ryan van de Pavert 162085'Jong Ajax:Mylo van der Lans 1551 for Ryan van de Pavert 1620
- Jinairo Johnson 1641 for Jano Monserrate 165985'Jong Ajax:Jinairo Johnson 1641 for Jano Monserrate 1659
- 85'Clint Leemans 1582 for Thomas Kok 1701De Graafschap:Clint Leemans 1582 for Thomas Kok 1701
Line-ups
Before kick-off: 33% · 32% · 35%(Jong Ajax · draw · De Graafschap)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (15%); the result 2–1 had 7%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Jong Ajax €395K, De Graafschap €483K.
- Home advantage made Jong Ajax the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
- Eerste Divisie: M. Diemers was the highest-rated midfielder (1867).
- Style contrast in attacking (Eerste Divisie): Jong Ajax ranked #19 of 20, De Graafschap #1.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Jong Ajax
18th in Eerste Divisie · 8 pts from 10
- 9 OctLVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1607
- 18 SepDRoda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1601
- 14 SepLJong Utrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1534
- 11 SepLWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1639
- 4 SepWAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1584
De Graafschap
15th in Eerste Divisie · 11 pts from 10
- 9 OctWJong Utrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1656
- 3 OctDFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1665
- 27 SepWDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1587
- 20 SepLNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1605
- 11 SepWEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1594
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax | 8 /10 | 46.5 | 0% | 1% | 19% | 14th |
| De Graafschap | 11 /10 | 50.4 | <1% | 5% | 8% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Jong Ajax · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1607
De Graafschap · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1752
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Jong Ajax: dribble-heavy (how Carlos García Badías plays) · De Graafschap: shot-heavy (how Thomas Duivenvoorden plays)